摘要
[目的/意义]随着社会工业进程的不断加速,我国突发事件的概率、强度呈现上升趋势,以突发事件为始的危机对社会安全与经济发展造成了严重的危害。立足于总体国家安全观,以大兴安岭地区森林火灾这一自然灾害突发事件为研究对象,探究突发事件内在运行规律,解决突发事件事前分析领域缺乏系统化感知预警方法的问题。[方法/过程]以哲学理念为立足点,以数据化思维为切入点,以可视化方法为承载体,提取突发事件内部的主要因素,选用时间序列模型抓取突发事件连续信息流,融入信息熵概念,构造突发事件突变点预警模型。[结果/结论]融入排列熵的突发事件突变监测方法可以对突发事件进行有效的突变监测和风险预警,为突发事件的事前预测、预警领域提供参考。[局限]虽然本文阐述的方法是对突发事件领域现有研究的有力补充,但是监测方法目前还较为单薄,仅对事件内部最为突出的单一因素采集分析,以及仅对突变点有所识别,关于实现进一步应对突发事件的人机结合智慧协同有待后续研究。
[ Purpose/significance] With the accelerating process of social industry, the probability and intensity of emergencies in China are on the rise, and the crisis starting with emergencies has caused serious harm to social security and economic development.Based on the overall national security concept, this paper takes the forest fire in the Great Khingan Mountains as the research object, explores the internal operation rules of emergencies, and solves the problem of lack of systematic perception and early warning methods in the field of prior analysis of emergencies.[Method/process] Taking the philosophy idea as the foothold, taking the data thinking as the entry point, taking the visualization method as the carrier, the main factors inside the emergency events are extracted, the time series model is selected to capture the continuous information flow of the emergency events, and the concept of information entropy is integrated into the construction of the emergency sudden change point early warning model.[Result/conclusion] The calculation results show that the sudden change monitoring method incorporating permutation entropy fits the actual situation, and the method has a good effect on sudden change monitoring and early warning.[Limitations] The method described in this paper is a more applicable research result obtained through the innovation of previous research results, which is a powerful supplement to the existing research in the field of emergencies.However, the monitoring method is still relatively weak at present, which only collects and analyzes the most prominent single factor in the event, and only identifies the mutation point.The realization of human-computer intelligent coordination for further response to emergencies needs to be further studied.
出处
《情报理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期36-42,共7页
Information Studies:Theory & Application
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“总体国家安全观下重大突发事件的智能决策情报体系研究”的成果,项目编号:20&ZD125。
关键词
突发事件
排列熵
时间序列
突变监测
风险识别
应急管理
emergency
permutation entropy
time series
mutation monitoring
risk identification
emergency management
作者简介
李依霖,女,1997年生,硕士生。研究方向:突发事件与网络舆情;张海涛(ORCID:0000-0002-9421-8187),男,1966年生,博士,教授,博士生导师。研究方向:数据智慧与社会治理,信息行为与智慧服务;周红磊,女,1996年生,博士生。研究方向:突发事件与网络舆情;张鑫蕊,女,1997年生,博士生。研究方向:突发事件与网络舆情。
