共同富裕背景下中等收入群体的界定标准与合理规模研究被引量：20

Research on the Definition Criteria and Reasonable Scale of Middle-income Groups in the Context of Common Prosperity

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摘要中国推进共同富裕的关键是“扩中提低”,即提高低收入者收入水平、使中等收入群体规模得到明显扩大。从中等收入群体的统计意义与经济意义入手,在理论层面展开关于中等收入群体界定标准的讨论。理论分析的结果表明,以居民人均可支配收入中位数为依据设定收入上下限的方法能够较为准确地界定实际生活中的中等收入群体。当收入分配格局由“金字塔型”向“橄榄型”转变时,中等收入群体的收入下限应当略高于收入分布的下四分位数,而收入上限则应略高于收入分布的上四分位数。从不同收入分配格局的结构特征来看,中等收入群体比重的合理范围应当在50%以上且不宜过高。参考部分发达国家的中等收入群体规模作为验证,当社会收入分配格局表现为比较合理的“橄榄型”结构时,中等收入群体比重大致保持在60%左右,并且低收入群体、中等收入群体以及高收入群体的规模比例接近3∶6∶1。进一步利用核密度估计方法,利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据实证测度中等收入群体比重,并基于国际比较视角分析中国在打造合理分配格局方面存在的问题。实证结果表明,中国中等收入群体比重尚不足40%。相比一些发达国家,中国中等收入群体“规模小、水平低”,且不同地区之间存在较大差距。因此,在推进共同富裕的进程中,要将继续扩大中等收入群体作为“主阵地”,结合中国各地实际发展水平科学地设置中等收入群体统计标准,更加精准地通过“三次分配”推动低收入群体向中等收入群体迈进,在进一步“做大蛋糕”的同时“分好蛋糕”,逐步形成中等收入群体规模适度的“橄榄型”收入分配格局。 The“olive”income distribution pattern,with a large middle and small ends,is considered to be the ideal income distribution pattern,characterized by a moderately sized middle-income group.Therefore,the key to promoting common prosperity in China is to“expand the middle and raise the low”,and the“middle”refers to the middle-income group.However,what size of the middle-income group is moderate?Is the middle-income group in the statistical sense the same thing as in the sense of actual living standards?Do the income distribution structure and the size of middle-income groups in some developed countries have any reference value for China?All these questions are worth exploring.Therefore,starting from the statistical and economic connotations of middle-income groups,the paper discusses the definition criteria of middle-income groups at the theoretical level.The results of theoretical analysis show that the method of setting the upper and lower income limits based on the median per capita disposable income of residents can more accurately define the middle-income group in real life.When the income distribution pattern changes from“pyramid”to“olive”,it is reasonable for the lower income boundary of the middle-income group to be slightly higher than the lower quartile of the income distribution and for the upper income boundary to be significantly higher than the upper quartile of the income distribution.From the perspective of the structural characteristics of different income distribution patterns,the reasonable range of the proportion of middle-income groups should be more than 50%and should not be too high.Referring to the size of middle-income groups in some developed countries as a validation,the proportion of middle-income groups remains at about 60%and the ratio of low-income group,middle-income group and high-income group is close to 3∶6∶1 when the income distribution pattern of society is in a more reasonable“olive”structure.Further using the kernel density estimation method,the proportion of middle-income groups in China is measured empirically using the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data,and the problems in creating a reasonable distribution pattern in China are analyzed based on an international comparative perspective.Results show that the proportion of middle-income groups in China was only 37.39%in 2018.Compared with some developed countries,China’s middle-income group still has the deficiency of“small scale and low level”,and there is a large gap between different regions.Therefore,the key to promoting common prosperity in China is to expand the size of the middle-income group and raise the income of low-income groups.The statistical standards for middle-income groups should be set scientifically in accordance with the actual development level of each region in China to promote the low-income group to the middle-income group through the rational income distribution in a more precise manner,promote the further“enlargement of the cake”while“dividing the cake well”,and gradually forming an“olive-shaped”income distribution pattern with the moderate size of middle-income groups.

作者李金昌任志远 LI Jin-chang;REN Zhi-yuan(School of Data Sciences,Zhejiang University of Finance Si-Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China;Zhejiang Research Institute of ZUFE-UCASS,Zhejiang University of Finance Si-Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区浙江财经大学数据科学学院浙江财经大学中国社会科学院大学浙江研究院

出处《统计与信息论坛》 CSSCI 北大核心 2023年第2期16-28,共13页 Journal of Statistics and Information

基金国家社会科学基金重大项目“大数据背景下我国新经济新动能统计监测与评价研究”(18ZDA125) 浙江财经大学研究生学科交叉研究项目“中等收入群体的界定标准与统计测度” 浙江省一流学科(浙江财经大学统计学)一般项目“共同富裕统计监测与评价研究”的资助。

关键词共同富裕 “橄榄型”分配格局中等收入群体合理规模国际比较 common prosperity “olive-shaped”distribution pattern middle-income group reasonable scale international comparison

分类号 C82 [社会学—统计学]

作者简介李金昌,男,浙江义乌人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:经济统计理论与方法,政府统计改革;通讯作者:任志远,男,山东枣庄人,博士生,研究方向:共同富裕理论与方法研究。