摘要
稳定和扩大中等收入群体是实现国民总体富裕的重要途径,然而在中等收入群体绝对规模增加的过程中,也存在中等收入群体“滑落”的现象。以2012—2018年的中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)估算,每四个家庭即有一个从中等收入群体“滑落”至低收入群体。通过对比“滑落”的中等收入群体与保持的中等收入群体发现,二者在家庭规模、受教育程度、所持房产、工作类型和工作性质等方面存在明显差异,同时呈现出区域差异和城乡差异,而其收支结构和消费储蓄结构基本一致。基于此,采用logit模型对影响中等收入群体“滑落”的因素进行分析。研究发现,教育因素和工作因素是中等收入群体“滑落”的关键。家庭中成员教育水平越高,“滑落”概率越低。受教育年限每增加一年,该个体所处的家庭“滑落”的概率下降约2.07%。家庭中非农业工作者和体制内工作者越多,其“滑落”的概率越低,家庭中每增加一个非农业工作者或体制内就业人员,“滑落”概率分别降低11.62%、5.56%。鉴于此,稳定和扩大中等收入群体须瞄准“滑落”的中等收入群体,从提升全社会的人力资本、推动农业劳动力转移、增加稳定性就业等方面入手,阻断向下“滑落”的通道,保证中等收入群体绝对规模的进一步提升,以实现“扩中”与“稳中”的有效统一。
Stabilizing and expanding the proportion of the middle-income group is an important way to achieve the common prosperity.However,in the process of increasing the absolute size of the middle-income group,there is also a phenomenon of“slip”of the middle-income group.According to the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data from 2012 to 2018,it is estimated that one in four households has“slipped”from the middle-income group to the low-income group.By comparing the“slipped”middle-income group and the“maintaining”one,it is found that there are obvious differences in family size,education level,real estate holdings,job type and work nature,and there are regional differences as well as urban and rural differences,while their structure of income and expenditure and structure of consumption and savings are basically the same.Based on this,this paper uses logit model to analyze the factors affecting the“slip”of middle-income groups.The study finds that education and work factors are the key to the“slip”of middle-income groups.The more education the member receives,the lower the probability of the“slipped”the family gets.For each additional year of schooling,the probability of the family“slip”would decrease by about 2.07%.The more non-agricultural workers and institutional workers in the family,the lower the probability of the family“slipped”.For every additional non-agricultural workers or institutional workers in the family,the probability of the family“slipped”would decrease by 11.62%and 5.56%,respectively.Therefore,to stabilize and expand the middle-income group,we must aim at the“slipped”and“slipping”middle-income group,and start from the aspects of improving the human capital of the whole society,promoting the transfer of agricultural labor,and increasing the stable employment to block the downward“slipping”channel,to ensure that the absolute size of the middle-income group increase,and to achieve the effective unity of“expanding”and“stabilizing”the middle-income group.
作者
蔡宏波
郑涵茜
CAI Hongbo;ZHENG Hanxi(Business School,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第5期57-70,共14页
Population & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“开放经济安全监测预警和综合评估研究”(21&ZD086)。
关键词
共同富裕
中等收入群体
“稳中”
“扩中”
common prosperity
middle-income group
“stabilizing”the middle-income group
“expanding”the middle-income group
作者简介
蔡宏波,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授,博士生导师;郑涵茜,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院博士研究生。
