摘要
储蓄-投资缺口收窄是2008年金融危机后中国经常账户规模显著缩小的原因之一。基于危机后中国企业杠杆率显著攀升与公司储蓄阶段式下降的事实,本文认为,此轮中国经常账户盈余缩减可能与非金融企业加杠杆驱动公司储蓄下降有关。通过构建理论模型揭示非金融企业加杠杆通过降低公司储蓄进而驱动外部盈余减少的作用机制后,本文运用CSMAR数据库从微观层面验证了企业加杠杆驱动公司储蓄下降这一中间机制的存在,揭示了经常账户调整背后企业层面的异质性储蓄行为。实证结果发现,不同杠杆率指标对储蓄率下降的驱动效果存在差异,相对总量负债,流动负债增加对企业储蓄下降刺激更大;企业所有制类型、所属行业、地区差异也关乎企业加杠杆驱动储蓄率下降的作用效果。总体而言,本文从微观视角为全球金融危机后中国经常账户加速调整提供了新的实证证据。
The narrowing of the savings-investment gap was one of the causes behind China’s remarkable current account adjustment after the 2008 financial crisis.Based on the fundamental fact that China’s corporate leverage ratio significantly increased and corporate savings declined after the crisis,this paper speculates that this round of China’s current account surplus reduction may be related to the decline in corporate savings driven by non-financial enterprises leveraging.Based on this,this paper firstly constructs a theoretical model to reveal the mechanism by which non-financial enterprises leveraging drives the reduction of external earnings by reducing corporate savings.Due to the deviation in the definition of corporate leverage ratio and savings rate at the macro and micro levels,this paper uses CSMAR database to further verify the existence of the core intermediate mechanism that non-financial enterprises leveraging drives corporate savings decline from the micro perspective,and reveals the influence of corporate heterogeneity.The empirical results further found that different leverage ratio indicators had different driving effects on the savings decline,and the increase of current liabilities stimulated the savings rate decline more than the increase of total liabilities.In addition,enterprise heterogeneity is also related to the fact that enterprises leveraging drives the savings rate down.State-owned enterprises leveraging led this round of savings rate decline,while the effect of hybrid system and private enterprises is not significant.At the same time,industry and regional differences also have heterogeneous effects.On the whole,this paper provides a new theoretical explanation and empirical evidence for the accelerated adjustment of China’s current account after the crisis.
作者
刘瑶
张斌
张明
Liu Yao;Zhang Bin;Zhang Ming(National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;National Institute for Finance&Development;School of Economics,Renmin University of China;Institute of Finance&Banking,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期34-45,共12页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“双循环格局下中国企业境外上市对资本配置效率的影响研究”(21CGJ045)
中国社会科学院创新工程项目“全球与中国金融市场的发展趋势与互联互通研究”
中国社会科学院财经战略研究院2022青年基金项目“全球经常账户调整的潜在经济影响探析”资助。
关键词
非金融企业
杠杆率
企业储蓄率
经常账户调整
Non-Financial Enterprises
Leverage Ratio
Corporate Saving Rate
Current Account Adjustment
作者简介
刘瑶,经济学博士,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院助理研究员,国家金融与发展实验室研究员;通讯作者:张斌,中国人民大学经济学院博士研究生;张明,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所副所长、研究员、博士生导师,国家金融与发展实验室副主任。
