摘要
一直以来,中国储蓄率在国际上处于较高水平,改革开放以来,依靠高储蓄高投资的模式,中国经济实现快速增长。但近几年储蓄率持续下降,对这种模式的可持续性带来挑战。本文从不同视角分析我国储蓄率的变动趋势,并实证分析储蓄率的影响因素以及储蓄率变动对宏观经济的影响。最后得出以下政策启示,为了促进经济可持续增长,需要提高储蓄——投资——经济增长转化效率,促进产业转型升级,同时稳定消费维持经济增长;增加政府支出,促进就业和加强社会保障网的建设;化解债务风险,尤其是积极推进企业去杠杆化。
China’s savings rate has always been at a high level in the world.Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has grown rapidly by relying on the model of high savings and high investment.However,the recent decline in savings rates has challenged the sustainability of this model.This paper analyzes the changing trend of China’s savings rate from different perspectives,empirically analyzes the factors affecting the savings rate and the impact of savings rate changes on the macro economy.In order to promote sustainable economic growth,it is necessary to improve the efficiency of savinginvestment-economic growth transformation,promote industrial transformation and upgrading,and at the same time stabilize consumption to maintain economic growth;increase government expenditure,promote employment and strengthen the construction of social security network;dissolve the debt risk,especially actively promote enterprise to deleverage.
作者
徐璐
王振兴
林昕
Xu Lu;Wang Zhenxing;Lin Xin(Haikou Branch of PBC,Haikou China)
出处
《金融发展评论》
2019年第10期23-37,共15页
Financial Development Review
关键词
中国储蓄率
变动趋势
宏观经济
China’s Saving Rate
Changing Trend
Macro Economy
