摘要
本文构建经济—地理权重矩阵,通过莫兰指数检验居民部门房地产金融风险的空间相关性,运用空间滞后模型分析京津冀居民部门房地产金融风险空间溢出效应及溢出影响因素。结果表明:京津冀居民部门房地产金融风险存在空间正相关性,并存在显著的空间溢出效应,北京是风险空间溢出的中心。居民购房需求和薪资水平是影响风险空间溢出的重要因素。为此,本文提出建立区域房地产金融风险联动防范机制以及抑制投机性炒房行为等建议。
This paper uses the economy-geographical weight matrix and Moran index to test spatial correlation of real estate financial risks in residential sectors.The spatial lag model is used to analyze the spatial spillover effects and spillover influencing factors of real estate financial risks in residential sectors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show that there is a positive spatial correlation between real estate financial risk of residential sectors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. There is a significant spatial spillover effect in the real estate financial risks of the residential sectors in the three places, and Beijing is the center of the spatial spillover effect. The housing demand and salary level of residents are the important factors affecting the spatial spillover of risks.Therefore, this paper puts forward the establishment of regional real estate financial risk prevention mechanism and mechanism of speculative behavior and other measures.
作者
葛红玲
李文丽
Ge Hongling;Li Wenli
出处
《投资研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期125-138,共14页
Review of Investment Studies
基金
北京市社会科学基金重点项目“京津冀地区房地产金融风险传递及预警研究”(17YJA003)
国家社科基金项目“我国区域性房地产金融风险空间溢出机制、效应及预警研究”(19BJL058)。
关键词
京津冀
房地产金融风险
居民部门
空间溢出
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
Risks of real estate finance
The residential sector
Space overflow
作者简介
葛红玲:北京工商大学国际经管学院金融科技系,教授,博士生导师;李文丽:北京工商大学金融学研究生。
