摘要
利用系统动力学构建城市群商品住房价格形成的仿真模型,并以京津冀城市群为例,选取北京、天津和石家庄三个城市2002~2017年间城市经济社会数据,利用Vensim软件对模型进行模拟求解,研究区域住房价格的收敛性。研究发现:模型具有较好的拟合度和稳健性;经过50次模拟,京津冀城市群城市住房价格呈现俱乐部收敛特征为北京、天津随着模拟次数增加趋于收敛,而石家庄始终呈现分化态势。
This paper establishes a theoretical model for the formation of commodity housing price in urban agglomeration by using system dynamics.Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as an example,selects the economic and social data of Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang from 2002 to 2017,uses Vensim to simulate the solution of the theoretical model,and studies the convergence of regional housing price.Results show that the model has good fitting degree and robustness.After 50 simulations,the housing price of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration showed the characteristics of club convergence—Beijing and Tianjin tended to converge as the number of simulations increased,while Shijiazhuang always showed the trend of differentiation.
作者
李云鹤
曾祥渭
王欣然
张万泉
LI Yunhe;ZENG Xiangwei;WANG Xinrang;ZHANG Wangquan(School of Mechatronics and Vehicle Engineering,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 102616,China;Adam Smith Business School,University of Glasgow,Scotland,The United Kingdom,G128QQ)
出处
《建筑经济》
北大核心
2020年第S01期233-237,共5页
Construction Economy
关键词
系统动力学
房价
收敛性
京津冀城市群
system dynamics
housing price
convergence
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration
作者简介
李云鹤,男,生于1994年,河北廊坊人,硕士研究生,研究方向:系统动力学。;曾祥渭,男,生于1980年,湖北荆州人,讲师,研究方向:房地产经济学。
