摘要
油气长输管道具有距离长、压力高、口径大、易燃易爆等特点,且管道周边环境复杂,开展油气长输管道风险评价的难度较高,需要耗费大量的时间、人力和物力。为提高管道风险评价的科学性和准确性,提高工作效率,减少主观因素对油气管道风险评价的影响,以浙江省级天然气管道为例,将危害管道安全运行的因素主要分成腐蚀、制造与施工缺陷、第三方损坏和地质灾害四大类,共计59种属性数据。通过对肯特法进行优化和改进,建立基于59种管道失效数据和10种后果数据的半定量风险评价模型。利用自主开发的管道智能风险评价系统对浙江省天然气管道进行智能风险评价和系统分析,计算出各段管道的失效可能性和失效后果,其中第三方损坏和制造与施工缺陷是管道失效的主要因素。该研究对于油气长输管道的安全运行和风险管理具有借鉴意义。
Long-distance oil and gas transportation pipelines have the characteristics of long distance,high pressure,large diameter,inflammable and explosive,and complex surrounding environment.Therefore,it is difficult to carry out risk assessment of long-distance oil and gas transportation pipelines,which requires a lot of time,manpower,and material resources.In order to improve the scientificity and accuracy of pipeline risk assessment,improve work efficiency,and reduce the influence of subjec-tive factors on oil and gas pipeline risk assessment,taking Zhejiang provincial natural gas pipeline as an example,the factors endangering the safe operation of pipelines are mainly divided into four categories,including corrosion,manufacturing and construction defects,third-party damage and geological disas-ters,and a total of 59 attribute data.By optimizing and improving the Kent method,a semi-quantita-tive risk assessment model based on 59 kinds of pipeline failure data,and 10 kinds of consequence data is established.The intelligent risk assessment and systematic analysis of Zhejiang provincial natural gas pipe-line are carried out by using the self-developed intelligent risk assessment system of pipelines,and the failure possibility and failure consequence of each pipeline are calculated.The third-party damage,and manufacturing and construction defects are the main factors of pipeline failure.This research has reference significance for the safe operation and risk management of long-distance oil and gas pipelines.
作者
李保平
季寿宏
钱济人
LI Baoping;JI Shouhong;QIAN Jiren(Zhejiang Zheneng Natural Gas Operation Co.,Ltd.)
出处
《油气田地面工程》
2022年第4期1-6,共6页
Oil-Gas Field Surface Engineering
关键词
油气管道
完整性管理
风险评价
管道失效
oil and gas pipeline
integrity management
risk assessment
pipeline failure
作者简介
李保平:工程师,硕士,2012年毕业于中国石油大学(华东)油气储运工程专业,从事石油天然气安全生产和技术管理工作,18957173806,291733635@qq.com,浙江省杭州市滨江区滨盛路1751号浙能第二大厦,310000。
