摘要
油气管道作为全球运输油气资源的主要方式之一,其规划建设的发展趋势主要受到油气资源开发和国家地区能源政策的影响。通过定量、定性两种信息挖掘途径,梳理2020年全球能源消费结构及管道建设发展情况,分析全球在役油气管道运行现状,预测在新形势下全球主要地区油气管道建设及发展趋势。未来,全球油气管道建设将主要受经济、政治、环境3个因素影响,预测未来几年全球油气管道建设总体趋于平稳:受国际环境影响,跨国管道建设进度变数较大,预计能够如期建成投产的跨国管道较少;各国管道建设主要取决于国家经济发展形势,受全球新冠肺炎疫情形势下经济低迷及“碳达峰、碳中和”指引下能源转型的双重影响,预计亚太地区仍将是未来全球进行本土管道建设的主要地区,欧美国家地区将探索新建或改建天然气掺氢输送管道。
Oil and gas pipelines are one of the main means for oil and gas transportation over the world,and the development trend of their planning and construction is mainly affected by the development of oil and gas resources,as well as the national and regional energy policies.By quantitative and qualitative information mining,the global energy consumption structure and pipeline construction development in 2020 were sorted out,the current operation status of global oil and gas pipelines was analyzed,and the construction and development trend of global oil and gas pipelines in major regions of the world under the new situation was predicted.In the future,the construction of global oil and gas pipelines will be mainly affected by three factors:economy,politics and environment.It is predicted that the overall construction of global oil and gas pipelines will tend to be stable in recent years.Affected by the international environment,the construction progress of transnational pipelines is uncertain to a large extent,and fewer transnational pipelines can be completed and put into service on schedule.Besides,the pipeline construction in each country mainly depends on the economic development situation thereof.However,due to the dual impact of the economic downturn under the global COVID-19 pandemic and the energy transition under the guidance of“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”,it is expected that the local pipeline construction in the world will be concentrated in Asia-Pacific Region in the future.Meanwhile,the European and American countries and regions will explore to construct new hydrogen-mixed natural gas transportation pipelines or reconstruct existing gas pipelines for hydrogen-mixed natural gas transportation.
作者
李秋扬
赵明华
张斌
温文
王乐乐
张雪琴
陈林
LI Qiuyang;ZHAO Minghua;ZHANG Bin;WEN Wen;WANG Lele;ZHANG Xueqin;CHEN Lin(Pipeline R&D Center,PipeChina North Pipeline Company;Langfang Oil&Gas Transportation Sub-Company,PipeChina North Pipeline Company)
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第12期1330-1337,1348,共9页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
基金
国家管网集团资助项目“国家管网集团技术集成研究”,JCGL202102。
关键词
油气管道
建设动态
运行现状
发展趋势
规划
能源转型
oil and gas pipelines
construction dynamics
operation status
development trend
planning
energy transition
作者简介
李秋扬,女,1985年生,高级工程师,2014年博士毕业于首都师范大学俄语语言文学专业,现主要从事油气管道信息跟踪及战略发展研究。地址:河北省廊坊市广阳区金光道51号,065000。电话:13106699624。Email:liqiuyang1985@126.com。
