摘要
针对新冠肺炎等新发传染病传播动力学模型的实际应用问题,提出了与确诊病例实时数据相关联的接触数,优化了新发传染病传播动力学模型,提升了模型的实用价值.把实时数据信息应用于模型参数估计,并将动力学模型应用于预估广州、武汉的新冠肺炎传播的峰值、最终规模、达峰时间.这类接触数可推广应用于其他一些新发传染病,揭示其暴发过程中不同时期的传播风险.本文数据来源于公开数据.
In this paper,aiming at the practical application of a transmission-dynamic model of emerging infectious disease like COVID-19,the quantity of contact associated with real-time data on confirmed cases is proposed and then the model is optimized and its practical value is enhanced.The real-time data information is applied to the parameter estimation of the dynamical model,which is applied to estimate the peak,the final size and the peak time of COVID-19 in Guangzhou and Wuhan,respectively.Such quantity of contact can also be applied to other emerging infectious diseases to reveal the transmission risk in the different periods of their outbreaks.
作者
崔景安
吕金隆
郭松柏
陈田木
CUI JING-AN;LV JINLONG;GUO SONGBAI;CHEN TIANMU(School of Science,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 102616,China;State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics,School of Public Health,Xiamen 361005,China)
出处
《应用数学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期147-155,共9页
Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金(11871093,11901027)
北京市教委科技计划一般项目(KM201910016001)
北京建筑大学研究生创新项目(PG2019093)
福建省科技计划项目(2020Y0002)
厦门市新型冠状病毒防控应急攻关项目(3502Z2020YJ03)资助.
关键词
新冠肺炎
动力学模型
接触率
最终规模
控制再生数
COVID-19
dynamical model
contact rate
final size
control reproduction number
作者简介
通讯作者:崔景安,E-mail:cuijingan@bucea.edu.cn。
