摘要
提出了一个元胞自动机扩展模型,研究HIV/AIDS在人群中传播扩散的动态过程。将个体在感染后的艾滋病(AIDS)发病过程划分成几个子阶段,以方便研究个体行为对传播扩散过程的影响。为了准确地描述传播过程,将个体异质性引入个体的行为中,并扩展了邻域概念。仿真结果表明,在异质性条件下,人群数量、初始感染率、个体活跃程度,以及邻域形式对HIV/AIDS传播扩散行为有重要的影响。
In this paper, we develop an extended CA simulation model in studying the dynamical behaviors of HIV/AIDS transmission. The model explicitly models the post-infection process of AIDS disease, facilitating the study of the effects of agents＇ behaviors on the dynamics of transmission. In order to better describe the dynamics of HIV/AIDS transmission among population, this paper introduces the heterogeneity into agents＇ behaviors, and extends the definition of neighborhood. The simulation results show the factors such as population size, initial infection ratio, mobility, and forms of neighborhood play significant roles in the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemical diseases.
出处
《系统管理学报》
北大核心
2008年第6期704-710,共7页
Journal of Systems & Management
作者简介
李璐（1977-），男，博士生。研究方向为管理与经济系统仿真。E-mail：lu．lee05@gmail．com
