外部冲击、土地财政与宏观政策困境被引量：71

External Shocks,Land Finance and Macroeconomic Policy Dilemmas

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摘要在外部冲击导致资本流出和经济衰退的背景下,中国出现一、二线城市土地供给下降,房价不断走高,民间投资增速大幅下降的现象。对此,本文在梳理基本事实的基础上,构建了一个多部门的小国开放经济DSGE模型,模型中嵌入了地方政府的土地财政行为,同时引入了房地产、重工业和非重工业等部门。研究发现地方政府的土地财政行为使得地价与GDP高度联动,在放大外部冲击对经济的负面影响时,导致政策在“资本账户开放”和“保增长”之间存在两难。地方政府通过紧缩土地供给,提高地价增加抵押贷款以稳定基建投资。在“稳增长”的同时,带来的高地价和高房价抑制了居民消费和住房需求,同时地方政府土地抵押借贷资金的增加,提高了非重工业部门的投资成本,恶化了投资结构,使得经济陷入“稳增长”与“调结构”的两难。 Due to capital outflows and economic recessions caused byexternal shocks,first-and second-tier cities in China have experienced a decline in land supply and a continuous rise in housing prices along with a sharp decrease in the growth of private firm investment.This leads to two important questions.Why are housing prices rising sharply?Why is private investment being crowded out?After documenting the relevant facts,we find that a local government s land finance behavior plays an important role in these phenomena.We build a multi-sector small open economy DSGE model.To capture the role of land finance in macroeconomic fluctuations,we embed the local government s land finance behavior into the model.We also extend the model to be multi-sector to analyze changes in the investment structure and examine the transmission path of policy adjustments,and we include the real estate,heavy industry and non-heavy industry sectors.The local government finance sits expenses through land trading andmortgages on the remaining land and uses this income mainly for infrastructure.Studies find that local governments land finance behavior linksl and prices to GDP.Because of the amplification of the negative impact of external shocks on the economy,local governments face a dilemma between capital account openness and maintaining stable growth.To stabilize infrastructure investment,local governments reduce the land supply to raise land prices and therefore increase land mortgage loans.This contributes to economic growth but harms the investment structure,leading to a dilemma between maintaining stable growth and making structural adjustments.The contractionary effect of negative external shocks decreases house and land prices.As local governments rely on revenue from land sales and land mortgages to finance their expenditures,the decline in land prices leads to a sharp decline in local government expenditures.The decline in expenditures directly affects the investment in and output of the heavy industry sectors such as the steel and cementsector due to the preference of local governments for infrastructure expenditures;this reduced investment eventually has a large negative impact on GDP.To prevent the decline in GDP,local governments lower the land supply to stabilize land prices and to increase the mortgage loanson the remaining land.These two effects work together to stabilize the local governments revenues.Local governments then increase infrastructure expenditures to stimulate investment in and the output of the heavy industry sector,which improves the entire economy.However,the high land and house prices resulting from the decrease in the land supply crowd out household consumption and housing demand.The rise in land prices also increases the land mortgage loansofthe local governments,which makes it more difficult for the non-heavy industry sector to obtain loans and crowds out its investment.This paper has important theoretical and policy implications.First,the behavior of local governments is of vital importance in China's economic fluctuations.Using land finance as our entry point,we shed light on how land finance affects economic fluctuations,including the leverage of land mortgages,the structure of local governments expenditures and the land supply.Our model provides a basic framework for further discussions and policy responses.Second,this paper is the first to discuss how external shocks and capital account openness affect economic fluctuations from the perspective of land finance.Third,we build a multi-sector DSGE model to explain economic fluctuations and macroeconomic policy dilemmas through a detailed theoretical analysis of the underlying mechanism.It is of great significance for understanding the current macroeconomic policy dilemmas in China,the role of land finance in economic fluctuations and future reforms.

作者梅冬州温兴春 MEI Dongzhou;WEN Xingchun(School of International Trade and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University)

机构地区中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院北京大学光华管理学院

出处《经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第5期66-82,共17页 Economic Research Journal

基金国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773149) 青年项目(71803008) 北京市社会科学基金项目(17LJB005) 教育部人文社科青年基金项目(18YJC790070) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金和中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划的资助。

关键词外部冲击土地财政投资结构政策困境 External Shocks Land Finance Investment Structure Policy Dilemma

分类号 F29 [经济管理—国民经济]

作者简介梅冬州,中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,邮政编码:100081,电子信箱:meidongzhoupku@126.com;通讯作者:温兴春,北京大学光华管理学院,电子信箱:wenxingchun2020@163.com。