摘要
人工智能是各国构筑核心竞争力的重要模块,更是关乎产业转型和价值链升级的主要抓手。本文使用International Robot Federation提供的机器人数据、中国海关数据库和中国工业企业数据库提供的企业数据构成了研究使用的高度细化的微观企业数据,在实证层面检验了人工智能对中国企业全球价值链参与的影响,数据跨度为2000—2013年。本文的主要结论是:①人工智能显著促进了中国企业参与全球价值链分工,且在多重稳健性检验和考虑工具变量的因果识别后仍然显著。②人工智能对中国企业全球价值链嵌入的影响目前主要集中在加工贸易企业。③2008年国际金融危机以后,人工智能对中国参与价值链的促进效应得到进一步释放。④人工智能对价值链参与的影响主要是通过两个渠道实现:一是替代从事低端环节生产的劳动力来降低企业成本;二是提高企业的生产率来增强企业的竞争力。⑤针对行业层面的数据分析发现,人工智能会显著促进行业的全球价值链位置提升。因此,在劳动力成本不断提高的现实情况下,重视创新发展,就是要抓住人工智能高速发展的契机,减少人工投入、提高企业的生产率,从而助力中国企业以更高水平融入全球价值链分工体系。
Artificial intelligence(AI)is an important module for countries to build core competitiveness,and is also the main grasp of industrial transformation and global value chains participation.By using the robot data from the International Robot Federation(IRF)and the enterprise data from China Customs Data and Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database from 2000 to 2013,this paper provides highly detailed micro-enterprise data to research the impact of AI on Chinese enterprises’participation in global value chains.The main findings are:First,AI has significantly promoted the participation of Chinese enterprises in the division of global value chains.This result is still stable under multiple robustness tests and causal identification of instrumental variables.Second,the impact of AI on the embedded global value chains of Chinese enterprises is mainly concentrated on processing trade enterprises.Thirdly,this paper finds that after the international financial crisis in 2008,the promotion effect of AI on Chinese enterprises’participation in the global value chains has been further enhanced.Fourthly,in terms of influencing channels,this paper finds that the impact of AI on the leaping in global value chains is mainly achieved through two channels.One is to replace the labor engaged in low-end production to reduce costs;another is to improve the productivity of enterprises to improve the competitiveness of enterprises.Finally,the analysis at the industry level shows that AI will significantly promote the position of the industries in global value chains.Therefore,under the realistic situation of continuously rising labor costs,the emphasis on innovative development is to seize the opportunity of rapid development of AI,reduce manual input,and increase the productivity of enterprises,thereby helping Chinese enterprises integrate into the global value chains division of labor system at a higher level.
作者
吕越
谷玮
包群
LYU Yue;GU Wei;BAO Qun(China Institute for WTO Studies,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing427000,China;Department of Economics,The Chinese University of Hong Kong,Hongkong 999077,China;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin300071,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期80-98,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球价值链、创新驱动与制造业‘低端锁定’破局:成因、机制及应对策略”(批准号71873031)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“从合资到独资:合作冲突与制度协调”(批准号71973073)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“逆全球化动向与国际经贸规则重构的中国方案研究”(批准号17ZDA098)。
关键词
人工智能
全球价值链嵌入
制造业企业
artificial intelligence
global value chains embedding
manufacturing enterprises
作者简介
通讯作者:吕越,对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院副教授,博士生导师,经济学博士,电子邮箱:nklvyue@126.com。;谷玮,中国香港中文大学社会科学院硕士研究生;包群,南开大学经济学院教授,博士生导师,经济学博士。
