摘要
目前对药用植物天麻(Gastrodia elata)的全球潜在适生区研究较少,基于多个生态位模型预测天麻在全球范围内的潜在适生区,对天麻人工引种栽培及其产业发展具有重要意义。该文收集220个天麻全球分布点和19个生态因子数据,最终筛选出8个环境变量参与模型训练,基于3个生态位模型(BIOCLIM、DOMAIN和MAXENT)预测天麻全球潜在适生区,并采用受试者工作特征曲线ROC和Kappa统计量分析比较不同模型的预测效果。结果表明:3个模型的预测结果基本一致,天麻全球潜在适生区主要分布在20°–50°N的亚洲地区,其中中国、日本和韩国是集中分布地,此外,印度、尼泊尔以及欧洲地中海附近有少量适生区。其中最适宜区主要分布在:中国四川盆地附近的省区以及中东部;韩国中东部的忠清北道、庆尚北道和庆尚南道;日本本州岛、九州岛以及四国岛,因此中国、日本和韩国是天麻的主要产区。3个模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)平均值均达到0.9以上,Kappa平均值均达到0.65以上,能较好地预测天麻的潜在适生区,其中MAXENT模型的精度较高,其次是DOMAIN和BIOCLIM模型。
Aims Previous studies on the globally suitable areas for growing the medicinal plant Gastrodia elata is lacking.This study aims to predict the global areas for potential distribution of this plant based on multiple ecological niche models.Methods A total of 220 global distribution points of G.elata and 19 ecological variables were compiled and eight environmental variables were selected for the model training.Three ecological niche models,including BIOCLIM,DOMAIN,and MAXENT,were used to predict the global areas for potential distribution of G.elata.The resulting data of different models were analyzed and compared with two statistical criteria：the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve（AUC） and Kappa value.Important findings The predictions of the three models are basically identical,showing that the global areas for potential distribution of G.elata are predominantly in the range of 20° N to 50° N in Asia,mainly in China,South Korea and Japan.A small proportion of the suitable areas occur in India,Nepal and the European countries near Mediterranean.The most suitable areas distribute in provinces close to the Sichuan Basin and the central East China,the mid-eastern parts of South Korea such as Chungcheongbuk-do,Gyeongsangbuk-do and Gyeongsangnamdo,and the Kyushu region and the Shikoku region on Japan＇s main island.Therefore,these three countries can be used as the main production areas of G.elata for its commercial development.The AUC average values of the three models are all above 0.9 and the Kappa average values all above 0.65,justifying their applications for predicting the potential areas of G.elata.Among them,the MAXENT model appears to perform the best,followed by DOMAIN and BIOCLIM.
出处
《植物生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第7期770-778,共9页
Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金(81473304)
国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAI05B01)
关键词
天麻
生态位模型
潜在适生区
模型评价
Gastrodia elata
ecological niche models
potential suitable distribution area
model evaluation
作者简介
E-mail：caixiangxie@163．com
