摘要
目的:针对野生知母资源分布面积萎缩的现状,对其潜在适生区进行预测,为扩大知母在我国的引种栽培和仿野生种植提供参考。方法:采用MaxEnt生态位模型和ArcGIS技术相结合的方式,对全国184个野生知母分布记录点、生物气候、土壤、地形因子进行分析,预测野生知母在中国的潜在适生分布区域。结果:野生知母在我国高适生区主要位于河北、山西、北京、陕西东北部、吉林西部、辽宁西部和黑龙江西南部,其面积占全国陆地面积的3.02%。与1970-2000年相比,野生知母的高适生区面积在2040-2060年预测将增加0.56个百分点,2060-2080年将增加0.78个百分点。采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)计算训练集和验证集样本的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.961和0.916,表明MaxEnt模型的预测结果可靠性较好。土壤亚类、降水量季节性变动系数和最热月最高温度是影响野生知母分布的主要环境因子。结论:该结果为知母野生物种的保护以及科学合理增加知母种植面积提供了理论依据。
Objective:To predict the potential suitable area of wild Anemarrhena asphodeloides resources in view of the shrinking distribution area,so as to provide reference for expanding the introduction and cultivation of Anemarrhena asphodeloides in China.Methods:The MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS technology were used to analyze the distribution record points,bioclimato,soil and topographic factors of 184 wild Anemarrhena asphodeloides in China,and the potential suitable distribution areas of wild Anemarrhena asphodeloides in China were predicted.Results:The highly suitable areas of wild Anemarrhena asphodeloides in China were mainly located in Hebei,Shanxi,Beijing,northeast Shaanxi,west Jilin,west Liaoning and southwest Heilongjiang,accounting for 3.02%of the total land area of China.Compared with 1970 to 2000,the area of high suitable area of wild Anemarrhena asphodeloides was predicted to increase by 0.56 percentage points from 2040 to 2060,and by 0.78 percentage points from 2060 to 2080.The receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)was used to calculate the area under curve(AUC)of the training set and validation set samples,which were 0.961 and 0.916,respectively,indicating that the prediction results of MaxEnt model were reliable.Soil subtypes,seasonal variation coefficient of precipitation and maximum temperature in the hottest month were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of wild Anemarrhena asphodeloides.Conclusion:The results provide a theoretical basis for the protection of wild species of Anemarrhena asphodeloides and the scientific and reasonable increase of planting area.
作者
张梓毅
司明东
吴萌
范群凤
张胜霄
郑玉光
马东来
ZHANG Zi-yi;SI Ming-dong;WU Meng;FAN Qun-feng;ZHANG Sheng-xiao;ZHENG Yu-guang;MA Dong-lai(College of Pharmacy,Hebei University of Chinese Medicine,Shijiazhuang 050200,China;Traditional Chinese Medicine Processing Technology Innovation Center of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050091,China)
出处
《中药材》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第1期37-42,共6页
Journal of Chinese Medicinal Materials
基金
河北省重点研发计划项目(19276414D)
河北省第二期现代农业产业技术体系创新团队项目(HBCT2018060205)
河北中医学院大学生创新创业训练项目(201914432017)
关键词
知母
潜在适生区
最大熵模型
地理信息系统
未来气候情景
Anemarrhena asphodeloides Bunge
Potential suitable areas
MaxEnt
Geographic information system
Future climate scenario
作者简介
张梓毅(1999-),男,在读硕士研究生,专业方向:中药资源学,E-mail:2248651569@qq.com;通讯作者:马东来,Tel:0311-89926350,E-mail:mdl_hebei@aliyun.com。
