摘要
随着"全面二孩"政策的实施,科学预测学龄前人口变动趋势和教育资源需求,对于学前教育的科学规划和深入改革发展具有紧迫的现实意义。作为全国教育首善之区,北京和谐发展的人口资源环境与长期以来极低的生育率并存,新生育政策调整后的人口变动趋势和教育资源需求预测具有特殊的研究意义。基于北京市第六次人口普查数据,采用中国人口预测系统,设置"全面二孩"政策低、中、高三种人口预测方案,分城乡对北京市2019—2029年的学前适龄人口和在园生规模进行预测,并根据人口预测结果和相应资源配置标准,分城乡推算2019—2029年的学前教育物力、人力和财力等三方面的资源需求,分析资源需求增量为现有存量带来的挑战。研究结果发现,学前适龄人口、在园生规模和学前教育资源需求在2023或2024年将相应到达峰值,此后将平稳回落,而现有学前教育物力资源、人力资源和财力资源均无法满足未来需求,为此须科学制定学前教育的未来发展规划。
With the implementation of the two-child policy, support to scientific prediction of preschool-age population and demand for educational resources has urgent practical significance for the scientific planning for early childhood education （ECE） and in-depth reform and development. Beijing,as the ＂leading city＂ with the principle of harmonious development among population, resources and the environment and very low fertility population, has a special research significance for population projection and educational demand forecasting. Based on the data of the 6th population census in Beijing, the China＇s Population Projection System with three scenarios （low,medium and high） of the two-child policy is employed to estimate the preschool-age population and kindergarteners from 2019 to 2029 in Beijing＇s urban and rural areas. It follows that,based on the population projections and the standards concerning resource allocation in ECE, the resource demand,including materi- al, manpower and financial resources in ECE from 2019 to 2029 in the urban and rural areas, has been estimated. Further analyses of challenge are confronted with incremental demand. The research findings suggest that the plateau of the preschoolage population, the kindergarteners and the resource demand in 2023 or 2024 ,would begin to decline, while the existing material, manpower and financial resources in ECE are unable to meet future needs. Finally, proper policy recommendations for development planning for ECE are proposed.
出处
《北京师范大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期22-33,共12页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Sciences)
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助
北京市教育科学规划重点课题(优先关注)(ACA14103)
关键词
“全面二孩”政策
人口预测
教育需求预测
two-child policy
population projection
educational demand estimation
作者简介
[通讯作者]洪秀敏，E-mail：xiuminhong@163．com
