摘要
文章基于省际动态面板数据,运用面板平滑转换回归模型实证发现进出口贸易对环境污染存在显著的非线性影响,该影响依赖于各省份的经济发展水平、产业结构、技术进步、环境规制、外资和腐败程度。其中经济发展水平和外资对进出口贸易环境污染效应的影响均具有双门限的非对称特征,在经济发展水平较高与较低的省份,进出口贸易均改善了环境质量,在中等经济发展水平的省份,进出口贸易则加剧了环境污染,在外资水平较高的省份与较低的省份,进出口贸易对环境污染的正面影响较小,在中等外资水平的省份,进出口贸易的环境污染效应较大;产业结构和腐败程度与进出口贸易的环境污染效应均为正相关,在第二产业占国内生产总值比重与腐败程度较高的省份,进出口贸易的环境污染效应较大;技术进步和环境规制与进出口贸易的环境污染效应负相关,在技术进步明显和环境规制严格的省份,进出口贸易对环境污染的负面影响较大,且随着转换变量变化进出口贸易对环境污染的影响在体制间平滑转换。
We used the panel smooth transition regression model to analyze Chinese provincial-level dynamic panel data on the import and export trades and environmental pollution. We find that the import and export trades have a significant nonlinear effect on environment pollution. The effect depends on a province＇s level of economic development, the structure of its economy, technological progress, environmental regulations, foreign investment, and corruption. The effects of economic development level and foreign investment on the environmental effects of the import and export trades show double- threshold asymmetric characteristics.The import and export trades improve the environment in provinces at the higher and lower ends of economic development but aggravate environmental pollution in provinces at a middle economic development level. The environmental pollution effect of import and export trades is relatively small in provinces with the most and the least foreign capital, but relatively large in provinces with a medium amount of foreign capital. There is a positive correlation between the structure of a province＇s economy and the environmental pollution effect and between the level of corruption and the environmental pollution effect. The environmental pollution effect is larger in provinces where secondary industries make up a higher proportion of their economies and where there is more corruption. There is a negative correlation between the environmental pollution effect from the import and export trades and technological progress and between the pollution effect and environmental regulation. In provinces marked by technological advancement and strict environmental regulation, the impact of the import and export trades on environmental pollution is negative and is relatively large. The effect of import and export trade on environmental pollution transitions smoothly between systems with changes of the transformation variable.
基金
国家社会科学青年基金项目(项目批号:13CJL062)
国家统计局重点项目资助(项目批号:2015LZ58)
关键词
对外贸易
环境污染
面板平滑转换回归模型
Foreign trade
Environmental pollution
Panel smooth transition regression model
作者简介
阚大学（1982-），男，安徽合肥人，南昌工程学院经济贸易学院副教授、经济学博士，研究方向：国际贸易理论与政策
吕连菊（1982-），女，湖北武穴人，南昌工程学院经济贸易学院讲师，研究方向：区域经济。
