摘要
低生育水平是"现代性"冲击的必然结果。借助"低生育率陷阱"假说,对比分析了OECD国家与"金砖四国"的生育转变历史、现状及形成机制。从经验观察与机制探讨两大视角指出:尽管鼓励生育政策使得一些国家从极低生育水平有所回升,但这种刺激的效应大小与效果持续性还需要进一步观察,刺激生育下的生育率反弹可视为尝试逃出"陷阱"的某种努力,这恰恰验证了"低生育率陷阱"假说的合理性。长期来看,无需"政策刺激"也能维持低生育水平的趋势性反转,才能证明"低生育率陷阱"是杞人忧天。中国目前生育政策微调的基本思路存在理解偏差,从政策执行的短期效果来看,与政策预期也有较大距离,需要进一步调整与完善。
Due to economic and social development,plus the impact of educational progress and modem urban lifestyle,low fertility is the inevitable result of ＂modernity＂.Based on ＂low fertility trap＂ hypothesis,we made comparative analysis of fertility change history,current situation and formation mechanism between OECD countries and the ＂BRIC countries＂.Although the policy has led some encouraged countries＇ fertility rebounded from a low birth rate,but the marginal effect size and continuity of stimulation require further observation,volatility mechanism behind reproductive behavior ＂stimulate then rebound＂ attempts to escape ＂trap＂,which not only confirmed the ＂low fertility trap＂ hypothesis,in the long run,under natural conditions,but without ＂stimulus＂ TFR remain near or above replace-level which can be regarded as get rid of trap at last.The basic idea of Chinafe current family planning policy contain very risky bias,from short- term effects of policy implementation point of view,the minor adjustment of policy is beyond former expectation,and need further adjustment and improvement.
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期7-18,共12页
Population and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目<中国性别失衡与社会风险控制研究>(项目批准号:71173100)
国家社会科学基金重点项目<完善人口和计划生育利益导向政策体系研究>(项目批准号:11AZD025)
国家社科基金青年项目"人口转变视角下教育结构失衡与大学生就业难问题研究"(课题编号:14CRK017)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
低生育率陷阱
波动
反弹
反转
low fertility trap
bounce and reverse
fertility policy adjustment
作者简介
陈友华（1962-），男，南京大学社会学院教授，博士生导师；
苗国（1984-），男，南京大学社会学院博士研究生，江苏省社会科学院社会学研究所助理研究员。
