摘要
目前对于我国生育水平的讨论主要关注对"真实生育水平"的估计,而较少关注为什么生育水平越来越低。本文根据推延效应和补偿效应博弈的原理,以图对我国生育水平不断走低给予人口学的回答。本文考察了2000年、2010年、2015年三次普查/小普查的分年龄生育率的变化,表明年轻人口生育率的大幅下降和年长人口生育率的微弱上升导致了生育率的不断走低。对2000—2017年的年度数据的进一步分析也表明,推延效应强劲和补偿效应微弱并不是普查时点的一时现象而带有一贯的趋势性。只要这种趋势没有根本扭转,中国的生育水平将不可避免地继续走低。此外,高龄生育已经成为不容忽视的生育现象。
Current discussion on China’s fertility is mostly concerned about the estimate of the"true fertility",but little about the downward trend of fertility.The study aims to give a demographic answer why China’s fertility is so low from a perspective of interplay between postponement and recuperation.By examining the changes in age-specific fertility rates with data from census/mini census in 2000,2010,2015,it demonstrates that the dramatic decline in younger age fertility and trivial increase in older age fertility result in the downward trend of fertility.The analysis of the annual data of 2000-2017 further proves that the strong postponement effect and weak recuperation effect are not the one-time phenomenon as indicated with census data but reflect a consistent trend over the period.As long as the trend is not to reverse,China’s fertility would inevitably continue to go downward.In addition,the high-age childbearing becomes a fertility phenomenon that is no longer insignificant.
作者
顾宝昌
侯佳伟
吴楠
GU Baochang;HOU Jiawei;WU Nan(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Sociology&Anthropology,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;School of Sociology and Psychology,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期49-62,共14页
Population & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“生育意愿和生育行为不一致现象的原因及其影响机制研究”(15CRK008)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国生育政策调整带来的新社会问题研究”(14ZDB150).
关键词
总和生育率
时期生育率
生育水平
分年龄生育率
推延效应
补偿效应
total fertility rate
period fertility rate
fertility level
age-specific fertility rate
postponement effect
recuperation effect
作者简介
顾宝昌,社会学博士,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心教授;通讯作者:侯佳伟,人口、资源与环境经济学博士,中山大学社会学与人类学学院教授;吴楠,中央财经大学社会与心理学院硕士研究生。
