摘要
文章在分析了单独二孩政策下流动人口的二孩生育意愿后发现,不足15%的流动人口、约22%的单独人群明确表示要生育二孩。单独(尤其是丈夫为独生子)、已育一女的人二孩生育意愿分别强于双独和双非、已育一子的人;若丈夫为独生子且育有一女,则二孩生育意愿高于其他人群。由此可得出两点初步结论:一是低于更替水平的生育意愿已成为一种"新常态",政策调整虽可能释放出一定的生育潜能,但难以使生育意愿出现较强反弹;二是对男孩的需求依旧是刚性的,这会使生育数量意愿具有不确定性,进而使中国的生育率不会像韩国或日本那样低。
The paper examines fertility desire,measured as planning to have a seeond birth,among migrants with only one child in the context of New Rule.There are less than 15 percent of total migrants and only 22 percent of migrants without a sibling who plan to have a second birth.A second child fertility desires of couples who are only child(especially husband is only son) and who have already had a daughter are higher than that of couples who are both only child,both not only child or with a born son.If husband is an only son,and his first birth is a daughter,the desire of planning to have a second child would be higher than that of others.It is clear that first,low fertility desire has already become a new normal in China.Although a more relaxed fertility policy may release some fertility potential,high fertility in traditional sense can hardly be observed in the near future.Second,the sex of the first child still matters substantially in the context of low fertility desire and fertility;people may have internalised the norms of fewer children,but having a son remains to be a must.This leads to the uncertainty of desired number of children,and it may maintain a higher fertility in China than that in South Korea and Japan.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期89-96,128,共8页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
作者简介
杨菊华 中国人民大学社会与人口学院，教授。
