摘要
第二次世界大战以后,伴随着美国经济的稳定发展,美国公共债务规模呈现不断扩大的趋势。然而,与绝对规模不断增长的趋势不同,美国的公共债务负担率在第二次世界大战后至1980年呈不断下降的状态,而在1980年以后逆转为不断上升的态势。通过比较研究的方法,从开放的宏观经济学以及财税政策的角度,对美国债务负担率发生逆转的原因进行分析,可得出:一方面,1980年以后,GDP的增速除了在克林顿执政期间稳定外,整体呈现逐渐减缓的态势,GDP增速趋缓主要是投资率的不断下降和对外贸易逆差不断扩大所致。另一方面,1980年以后,美国财政收支失衡加剧。在财政支出方面,由于美国失业率居高不下、贫困率不断上升、老龄化程度不断加剧,导致美国社会保障支出不断扩大;在财政收入方面,在收入分配恶化和减税政策的共同作用下,美国政府财政收入占GDP的比例不断下降。结合美国公共债务发展的现实教训,中国公共债务发展可得到相应的启示。
As public debt was expanding, the trend of gross debt-to-GDP ratio changing went from falling during 1946-1980 to rising since 1980s. Based on comparative study and from the perspective of open macroeconomics and fiscal policy, this paper concludes that there are two reasons of gross debt-to- GDP ratio rising gradually since 1980. On the one hand, GDP growth rate decreased after 1980 except for the period of Clinton administration, which was due to investment rate decreasing and foreign trade surplus expanding; On the other hand, fiscal imbalance increased after 1980. Fiscal outlays rose relative rapidly due to the number of unemployed and poor population was larger and larger; Fiscal receipts were constrained by new-liberal tax breaks policies. Finally, this paper proposes some suggestions for public debt development in China according to the lessons of American public debt development.
出处
《学术月刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第9期71-81,共11页
Academic Monthly
关键词
公共债务负担率逆转经济增长财政收支
gross debt-to-GDP ratio, reverse, GDP growth, fiscal revenue and expenditure
作者简介
讲师
