摘要
本文着重考察20世纪80年代初以来美国国内生产总值实际增长率和对外经济关系变量对美国失业率的影响。计量检验发现,在所考察期间内,国内经济变量对失业率有着显著重要作用；贸易平衡和经常帐户平衡的作用不显著；美元实际有效汇率指数有一定消极影响,但程度很小。这个结果从一个侧面说明人民币与美元汇率不可能对美国失业率有任何显著重要的消极作用。
This paper examines the relationship between real effective exchange rates of US dollar and unemployment rate in America, taking into account domestic economic factors that are represented by GDP growth. Based on data from 1980-2004, the proposed econometric study finds that during the observed period, American GDP gro^Nth has significant impact on movements of US unemployment rate, whilst trade balance or current account balance appears not. Moreover, the negative effect of real effective exchange rates of the US dollar on unemployment is only minimal. The paper concludes that Renminbi/dollar exchange rate has had no significant impact on domestic unemployment in the U.S., and the belief that Renminbi revaluation would help ameliorate American domestic unemployment is not grounded in economic analysis.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第8期32-40,共9页
Studies of International Finance
关键词
实际有效汇率
国际收支平衡
就业
Real Effective Exchange Rate
Balance of Payment
Employment.
作者简介
贺力平，北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院金融系教授；
范言慧，北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院博士研究生
范小航，北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院金融系硕士研究生
