摘要
当前人口老龄化对养老金需求增加,供给侧改革要求适当降低缴费率。针对这一矛盾,围绕国家"十三五"规划提出实施渐进式延迟退休政策的要求,结合当前关注度最高的两种方案设计,依据基础养老金供需平衡原理,构建延迟退休对缴费率的贡献系数相关数理模型。定量分析发现:不实行延迟退休政策条件下,均衡缴费率将会达到22. 6%。延迟退休政策实施后,方案1能够为降低缴费率贡献4. 6个百分点,方案2能够贡献5. 1个百分点。尽管替代率会上升,但对贡献系数的消减作用有限。退休政策的改革依然能够释放出"改革红利"。在此基础上,提出相关建议。
Population aging requires pension requirements increase,the current supply side reform requires appropriate lower pension payment rate.In order to solve this contradiction,this paper focuses on gradual model delay retirement policy put forward by 13th Five Years'Plan. Combining with the current highest priority scheme design,based on the basic pension balance between supply and demand theory,build the mathematical model of delay retirement contribution index about the lower the basic endowment insurance payment rate.Quantitative analysis found out:without delay retirement policy conditions,balanced payment rate Will reach 22.6%. Delay retirement policy implementation,scheme 1 to contributing to reduce the payment rate of 4.6%,scheme 2can contribute to reduce the payment rateof 5.1%.Although reolacement rate will rise,but only a small contribution to reducing still can release a lot of "reform dividend".Based contribution index.Retirement policy reforms on this,the relevant suggestions are put for-ward.
作者
陈洋
边恕
穆怀中
张铭志
CHEN Yang;BIAN Shu;MU Huai-zhong;ZHANG Ming-zhi(Institute of Population Research,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期2-10,62,共10页
Population and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"机关事业单位并轨养老保险缴费适度水平及资金总供需平衡研究"(71573112)
辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目:"贫困与反贫困中社会养老保险缴费与给付制度优化研究"(L18CSH005)
沈阳市社科规划专项资金项目"沈阳社区养老服务医养融合机制的资金平衡研究"(17042)
辽宁大学亚洲问题研究项目"人口老龄化背景下东北地区医养结合筹资问题研究"(Y201812)
关键词
延迟退休
降低缴费率
贡献系数
替代率
Delay Retirement
Lower Payment Rate
Contribution Index
Replacement Rate
作者简介
陈洋(1986-),男,河南信阳人,辽宁大学人口研究所助理研究员,研究方向:国民财富、社会保障、收入再分配;边恕(1973-),男,辽宁锦州人,辽宁大学人口研究所教授、博士生导师,辽宁大学人口研究所执行所长,研究方向:社会保障。
