摘要
CVM的有效性和可靠性检验在CVM研究中占据愈来愈重要的地位,国内目前该方向的研究还是空白。本文结合武夷山景区非使用价值CVM案例研究,对CVM可靠性作一些探索。案例CVM的研究结果表明:武夷山景区旅游资源非使用价值32.42×108元/a(2006年价格),人均保护支付意愿16.42元/(人.a)。以全国环评工程师为目标人群,相隔半年进行了可靠性检验。PC1、PC2样本数及地域分布基本一致,可靠性检验结果表明:①样本的性别、年龄、经济收入、对旅游的热爱程度、对武夷山景区的偏爱程度及对武夷山的熟悉程度等社会经济特征与相对应的是否具有支付意愿(正WTP率)的相关性分析比照具有较好的重现性。在中国环评工程师这一特殊的目标人群中,男性、到过武夷山景区特别是近期有计划去武夷山者、对武夷山较为熟悉者对于武夷山景区非使用价值通常具有较明显的支付意愿。②样本社会经济特征对支付意愿额度的影响相关性的重现性较好,在环评工程师中具有正支付意愿这-特定目标人群中,其支付额度具有较大的随机性,与被调查者的性别、年龄、对旅游的热爱程度、对武夷山的偏爱程度及熟悉程度均不存在显著性相关,但与收入水平呈弱相关。③WTP中位数与平均数重现性良好。PC1、PC2的中位数相差1.58元(RMB),误差很小。通过本次可靠性检验,武夷山景区旅游资源非使用价值CVM调查结果可靠性得到了保证。
Validity and reliability of the contingent valuation method （CVM）, which refers to the ‘accuracy＇ and ‘reproducibility＇ of the CV results, have become increasing attention. However, there are still challenges. The monetary value of non-use value of Wuyishan tourism attraction was gauged by CVM method using willingness-to-pay elicited by payment card approaches. A test-retest procedure for payment card approaches was used in this case, and a random sample of native environmental assessment engineers were interviewed twice with an interval of around 6 months. These two surveys were named PC1 and PC2 in short. The reliability tested indicates that there is no statistically significant difference between the values obtained in two time periods. PC1 and PC2 had the similar results by way of regressing either the WTP value or positive WTP rates against standard socioeconomic characters（ gender, age, monthly income etc）, and PC1 and PC2 were good values resulted from WTP median and WTP average due to very small error, e. g, WTP median absolute error was only 1.58 yuan between PC1 and PC2, yet median and the mean WTP were higher in the test than in the retest.
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第10期4301-4309,共9页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
福建省自然基金资助项目环境资源价值CVM评估的可靠性与有效性检验(2007J0126)
福建省教委资助项目(03WE289)~~
作者简介
许丽忠（1970-），女，博士生，高级工程师，主要从事环境价值研究．E-mail：xxgglp@163．com
通讯作者Correspondingautor，E-mail：xxgglp@163．com
