摘要
条件价值法(CVM)是目前唯一能测度居民参与生态补偿支付意愿的方法。本文以宁波前湾新区为例开展实证研究,运用基于生存分析的支付卡式数据分析方法,利用寿命表法计算民众海涂湿地生态修复支付意愿累积存活概率,根据累积生存概率的数据规律,尝试拟合适合的生存函数并计算生存概率,应用半参数Cox比例风险模型分析支付意愿影响因素,为支付卡式数据分析提供新的分析路径。研究结果表明:前湾新区周边民众平均支付意愿为24.07元/年,民众的年龄、受教育程度和收入水平对海涂湿地生态修复有显著影响,性别和对海涂生态价值的理解程度对支付意愿的影响则不够显著。为进一步激发民众环保投入热情,提高民众海洋生态修复支付意愿,提出如下政策建议:(1)强化民众对海涂生态功能的科学认知,培养民众对海涂环境的积极情感;(2)为高收入群体对海涂生态价值正外部性支付费用搭建多元化平台;(3)积极拓宽生态环保的宣传区域,创新环保宣传方式,切实改进和提升环保宣传的效果。
At present,conditional value method(CVM)is the only method that can measure residents’willingness to pay for ecological compensation.Payment card selection questionnaire is a simple and effective questionnaire format,and its data are discrete data.Although it can provide a direct estimate of willingness to pay,it cannot directly fit a parametric model and thus cannot fully mine the sample data information.To solve the above problems,this paper proposes a payment card data analysis method based on survival analysis.Firstly,the life table method is used to calculate the cumulative survival probability of willingness to pay.Then,according to the data law of cumulative survival probability,it tries to fit the appropriate survival function and calculate the survival probability.Finally,semi-parametric Cox proportional risk model is used to analyze the influencing factors of willingness to pay,which provides a new path for data analysis.Taking the survey of residents’willingness to pay for ecological restoration of tidal wetland in Qianwan area of Ningbo as an example,the empirical analysis shows that the willingness to pay of residents around this area is 24.07 yuan per year.Age,education level and income level had significant effects on the ecological restoration of tidal flats,while gender and tidal flats’understanding of ecological value had no significant effects on the willingness to pay.In order to stimulate citizens’enthusiasm for environmental protection more effectively,the following policy suggestions are put forward:deepen residents’cognition of ecological functions of tideland,cultivate residents’positive emotion towards tideland environment,and build a diversified platform for high-income groups to pay for the positive externality of ecological value of tideland,and expand publicity areas and innovate publicity methods.
作者
王显金
张宸铭
詹国彬
Wang Xianjin;Zhang Chenming;Zhan Guobin
出处
《实证社会科学》
2022年第1期123-139,共17页
Social Science Research
基金
浙江省社科规划项目“建立生态补偿机制推进浙江省海涂开发和保护的途径研究”(19NDJC0104YB)
江苏省社科规划项目“美丽江苏视角下政府购买生态服务的模式与机制创新研究”(17ZTB022)的联合资助
关键词
支付卡式引导技术
条件价值评估法
生存分析
willingness to pay
CVM
payment card boot technology
survival analysis
Cox proportional risk model
作者简介
王显金(1978—),男,博士,宁波财经学院国际经济贸易学院副教授,研究方向为生态经济;张宸铭(1997—),男,南京审计大学公共管理学院硕士研究生;詹国彬(1977—),男,博士,南京审计大学公共管理学院教授,博士生导师,E-mail:zhanguobin@nbu.edu.cn。
