摘要
价格波动风险是我国农产品市场中的主要风险部分,对农业的影响日益增强,涉农主体的避险需求增大。农产品价格指数保险成为管控农产品市场风险的有效工具,很大限度地保障了涉农主体的收益稳定。价格指数保险的核心是设定理赔目标价格,是否合理设定目标价格直接决定价格指数保险能否顺利开展。本文基于2017-2020年吉林、辽宁、黑龙江等8个主产区玉米现货价格数据,采用Beta-skew-t-EGARCH模型研究玉米价格波动特征,结果发现:玉米现货价格波动具有较强的持续性和聚集性,推行玉米价格指数保险具有必要性。本文通过分析玉米价格波动的多项特征,提出积极开展玉米价格指数保险推广工作、利用玉米期货市场合理制定目标价格、转移玉米产业主体的价格风险等建议。
Price fluctuation risk is the main part of my country’s agricultural product market risk,and its impact on agriculture is increasing,and the demand for hedging from agricultural entities has increased.Agricultural product price index insurance has become an effective tool for managing agricultural product market risks,which greatly eases the price fluctuation of agricultural products and guarantees the stability of the income of agricultural entities.The target price of claim settlement is the core of price index insurance,and the reasonableness of the target price directly determines whether the price index insurance can be carried out smoothly.Based on the corn spot price data of 8 major producing areas including Jilin,Liaoning and Heilongjiang from 2017 to 2020,this paper uses the Beta-skew-t-EGARCH model to study the characteristics of corn price fluctuations.The research found that:corn spot price fluctuations have strong persistence It is necessary to implement corn price index insurance.By analyzing multiple characteristics of corn price fluctuations,this article proposes policy enlightenment for optimizing corn price index insurance:actively carry out corn price index insurance promotion;use corn futures market to reasonably set target prices;transfer price risks of the main body of the corn industry,etc.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2021年第2期52-56,共5页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
教育部人文社会科学规划研究基金项目“一带一路沿线省份天气风险耦合与农业指数保险问题研究”(项目编号:17YJA790023)
关键词
农产品价格指数保险
玉米价格
玉米期货
agricultural product price index insurance
corn price fluctuation corn futures market
Beta-skew-t-EGARCH model
