摘要
水稻是我国最主要的粮食作物之一,其产量保险有助于保障人民生活质量,维持农户收入稳定,推动经济可持续发展。水稻产量保险的关键在于产量预测、风险区划及费率厘定方法。本文搜集了云南省16个地级市水稻单产量和6项气象指标数据,尝试引入期望分位数机器学习模型对数据进行训练;利用期望分位数更注重尾部损失的特点对单产量作出精确预测;结合非参数核密度估计单产量分布密度函数,计算纯保费率并根据费率划分低、中、高三个风险区设计水稻产量保险并对补贴政策进行探讨;最后,应用均值—半方差模型对新的产量保险保障农户收入的效果进行检验。结果表明:新保险能有效减小农户收入的波动以及可能出现的损失,保障农户收入稳定。基于研究结论,提出采用全省统一定价的保险设计方案、建立灾前预防和灾后减损机制、优化政府财政补贴等措施,同时对农业保险公司的经营策略献言献策,旨在提高生产区应对灾害能力的同时,降低农户生产风险,促进农民持续增收。
Rice is one of the most fundamental crops in China and the area yield insurance helps to protect people’s quality of life,maintain stable farmers’incomes,and promote sustainable economic development.The key issues to the area yield insurance lie in accurate yield forecasting,risk zoning and ratemaking.This paper gathers rice unit yield data and six meteorological indicators from 16 prefecture-level cities in Yunnan Province and attempts to introduce several expectile machine learning methods to train the data and make more accurate forecasts of future unit yields by utilizing the excellent characteristics of expectile,which focuses more on the extreme losses in the tail regions.A non-parametric kernel density is used to estimate the density function of the distribution of the rice unit yield.Pure premium rates are calculated and three risk areas are obtained according to those rates:low,medium,and high.We design a novel rice unit yield insurance and ex-plore the difference between the subsidy policies derived from our models and the policies implemented in the real world.Finally,a mean-semivariance model is applied to test the effectiveness of the new unit yield insurance in protecting farmers’incomes.The results show that the novel unit yield insurance can effectively reduce the fluctuation of farmers’income and potential losses,and ensure the stability of farmers’incomes.Based on research findings,we propose the adoption of a province-wide uniform pricing insurance design scheme,the establishment of a pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster loss reduction mechanism,and the optimization of the government’s financial subsidy measures and other measures,as well as advice on the business strategy of agricultural insurance companies,to improve the ability of the production area to cope with disasters,while reducing the risk of production of farmers and to promote the sustained increase in farmers’incomes.
作者
郭哲琦
高苏浩
GUO Zheqi;GAO Suhao
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2024年第2期71-77,共7页
Price:Theory & Practice
作者简介
郭哲琦(1991-),女,汉族,山东淄博人,中国人民大学经济学博士,研究方向:农业保险、巨灾保险;通讯作者:高苏浩。
