摘要
内循环战略的实施和国际环境的转变表明出口依存型产业市场将面临重大的转折和重构。本文利用2017年全国投入产出表计算各部门出口额占总产出比例,筛选出对国际市场变动相对敏感的出口依存型产业。通过计算投入产出表中各部门的产出系数,识别出以出口依存型部门为终端的上游产业并将其合并。利用UCINET软件分析计算出口依存型产业链各种中心度,分析其特征。设定出口依存型产业链终端部门的出口额变动场景,计算出口额变动形成的冲击在整个产业链扩散后造成的压力。研究结果表明经济体系的宽厚纵深使得中国能够较大程度上承受出口市场变动带来的影响,表现出明显的韧性。
The implementation of internal circulation strategy and the change of international environment indicate that the market of the export industries will face a major turning point and restructuring.This paper uses the 2017 National InputOutput Table to calculate the proportion of exports of various sectors in total output,and selects the export-dependent industries that are most sensitive to changes in the international market.By calculating the output coefficients of each sector in the inputoutput table,the upstream industries of export-dependent sectors as the terminal are identified and merged.This paper uses UCINET software to analyze and calculate various centralities of export-dependent industrial chains and analyze their characteristics,sets the export value change scenario of the terminal sector of the export-dependent industrial chain,and calculates the pressure caused by the impact of the export value change after the spread of the entire industrial chain.The results show that the breadth and depth of the economic system enable China to withstand the impact of changes in the export market to a large extent,which shows obvious resilience.
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期23-32,共10页
Economist
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“基于生态视角的资源型区域经济转型路径创新研究”(15BJL034)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“‘区块链+’背景下大学生个性化人才培养及效果追踪评价研究”(2020BJY020)
关键词
内循环
出口依存度
产业链重构
Internal Circulation
Export Dependence
Industrial Restructuring
作者简介
徐澈,华北水利水电大学副教授。
