摘要
2020年以来,中国采取严格的检疫与隔离措施应对新冠肺炎疫情,一定程度上影响了经济的发展,并引发未来能源供需结构的变化,进而影响未来能源发展的规划。为更好地研判未来能源发展趋势,助力能源产业健康稳定可持续发展,基于能源供需变化、工业活跃程度及交通运输等因素,剖析新冠肺炎疫情对能源发展规划的影响。短期来看,交通运输疲软对石油需求的冲击最大,工业活跃水平决定能源消费复苏程度。对于"十三五"规划目标,除天然气、核电以外,其他能源规划的目标大多有望实现;"十四五"期间,煤炭在一次能源中的占比有望上升,可再生能源的机会与挑战并存,内陆核电获得建设的机会渺茫。
In response to the COVID-19 epidemic,China has taken strict quarantine and quarantine measures,which to a certain extent has affected the economic development and led to changes in the structure of energy supply and demand in the future,thus affecting the planning of future energy development.In order to promote the stable,healthy,stable and sustainable development of the energy industry,the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on energy development planning is analyzed based on the changes in energy supply and demand,industrial activity and transportation and other factors.In the short term,weak transport had the biggest impact on oil demand,and the level of industrial activity determining how far energy consumption recovers.For the 13 th Five-Year Plan,except for gas and nuclear power,most other energy targets are expected to be met.During the 14 th Five-Year Plan period,the proportion of coal in primary energy is expected to increase,and opportunities and challenges for renewable energy exist side by side.However,there would be little chance for the construction of inland nuclear power after the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic.
作者
王祖纲
刘芳
贺江
付懿
WANG Zugang;LIU Fang;HE Jiang;FU Yi(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute,Beijing 100724,China;Research Institute of Oil Production Engineering of Daqing Oilfield Co.,Ltd.,Daqing,Heilongjiang 163453,China;PetroChina International Brazil Trading Ltd.,Rio 22290,Brazil;China Petroleum Technology and Development Corporation,Beijing 100028,China)
出处
《世界石油工业》
2020年第5期7-16,共10页
World Petroleum Industry
关键词
新冠肺炎疫情
能源规划
煤炭
石油
天然气
可再生能源
核电
COVID-19 epidemic
energy planning
coal
oil
natural gas
renewable energy
nuclear power
作者简介
第一作者:王祖纲(1974-),男,高级工程师,工学博士,毕业于中国石油大学(北京),中国石油集团经济技术研究院二级专家,石油商报社副社长。长期从事炼油化工、清洁替代燃料、新能源汽车等方面的研究。
