摘要
在依据时间序列统计性质的短期负荷预测的准确度上限估计研究上 ,根据 Chaitin定理的思想以及采样定理 ,得出的新看法有 :特定周期采样负荷序列的预测准确度上限 ,应该在更短周期的负荷采样序列中进行估计。在准确度上限计算时使用低通滤波器来提取高频成分 ,不仅得到了更具有普遍意义的上限 ,还避开了时间序列模型适用性检验的困难性。注意到负荷预测准确度上限 。
After estimating the precision upper limit of short term load forecasting in time series,from the viewpoints of Chaitin theorem and the sampling theorem some conclusions could be got. First, the upper limit of load forecasting precision sampled at a certain frequency,can only be estimated from another time series of the same load sampled at a higher frequency.Second, using low pass filters to pick up the high frequency component for estimating the upper limit can get a more general limit and avoid the difficulty of validity verifying of the time series models.Last, an upper limit of forecasting precision depends essentially on the forecasting method,so the given load records can have different upper limits when different forecasting means are used.
出处
《电力系统及其自动化学报》
CSCD
2004年第2期36-39,共4页
Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA
