摘要
推进同邻国的跨境铁路设施互联互通对于中国具有重要的战略意义,而邻国的地缘战略却导致跨境铁路合作屡遭挫折。已有研究多以同一理论框架解释不同国家的地缘战略,不利于明晰跨境铁路在不同国家呈现差异化状态的原因。论文根据国家政权特征,提出一个对冲理论、双层博弈论和地缘破碎带理论并列的多元理论分析框架,通过案例分析分类探究邻国地缘战略对跨境铁路建设的影响。研究发现:①基于对冲理论,邻国在安全威胁与经济利益间的权衡影响跨境铁路建设。哈萨克斯坦在俄罗斯和中国之间维持中立对冲,老挝加强与中国的积极对冲以缓解越南影响,中哈铁路和中老铁路顺利通车。中越铁路则受越南“竹式外交”的影响,反复摇摆,进展曲折。②基于双层博弈论,政治精英在国内、国际两个层级的博弈影响跨境铁路建设。尽管中国积极地推进合作,中吉乌铁路、中巴铁路、中尼铁路和中泰铁路均受到受援国国内政权更迭频繁和外部大国干预的影响,进展缓慢。③基于地缘破碎带理论,邻国的不统一且不稳定状态导致跨境铁路项目被搁置。随着缅甸的破碎化态势加剧,中缅铁路缅甸段建设处于停滞状态。据此提出政策建议,对积极和中立对冲的国家应加大援助力度并引导中立对冲的国家向积极对冲转变,对消极对冲的国家在加强“软联通”过程中应防范其战略回摆;适用双层博弈论分析的国家,建议加强其国内深耕以谋求共识并做好防控地缘风险的准备;适用地缘破碎带理论分析的国家,应优先“以经济稳政治”来谋共识并适时采取安保措施保障跨境铁路安全。研究结果可为推动中国与邻国的跨境铁路合作提供经验参考。
Promoting cross-border railway infrastructure connectivity with neighboring countries holds significant strategic importance for China,but the geopolitical strategies of these neighbors often lead to setbacks in cross-border railway cooperation.Existing studies often use a single or the same theoretical framework to explain the geopolitical strategies of different countries,which is not conducive to clarifying the reasons behind the differentiated states of cross-border railways in various countries.This study applied multiple analytical frameworks based on national regime characteristics,comprising the theories of hedging,two-level game,and shatter belt.Through case analyses,it categorically investigated the impact of neighboring countries'geopolitical strategies on cross-border railway construction.The findings are as follows:1)Based on the hedging theory,neighboring countries seeking a balance between security threats and economic interests affected railway construction.Kazakhstan maintained neutral hedging between Russia and China,while Laos enhanced active hedging with China to mitigate the influence of Vietnam,leading to the successful operation of the China-Kazakhstan and China-Laos railways.Conversely,the China-Vietnam railway faced setbacks due to Vietnam's"bamboo diplomacy".2)According to the two-level game theory,political elites playing the game at domestic and international levels influenced railway projects too.Despite China's active promotion of cooperation,the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan,China-Pakistan,China-Nepal,and China-Thailand railways were hindered by frequent domestic regime changes in recipient countries and external power interferences.3)The shatter belt theory indicates that lack of unity and stability of neighboring countries leads to stagnation of cross-border railway projects as well.As the fragmentation situation in Myanmar intensifies,the construction of the Myanmar section of the China-Myanmar railway has been put on hold.Based on these findings,policy recommendations are proposed:First,China should increase aid to countries engaged in active and neutral hedging and guide neutral countries towards active side;for countries engaged in negative hedging,we need to prevent strategic backsliding while enhance"soft connectivity".Second,for countries where the two-level game theory is applicable,it is advisable to deepen domestic engagement to build consensus and prepare for geopolitical risks.Finally,for countries that can be analyzed through the shatter belt theory,we should prioritize"stabilizing political situation through economic means"to achieve consensus while timely implement security measures to ensure railway safety.These findings can provide valuable references for advancing cross-border railway cooperation between China and its neighboring countries.
作者
吴雯
阎建忠
张镱锂
吴仕海
黄宇
WU Wen;YAN Jianzhong;ZHANG Yili;WU Shihai;HUANG Yu(College of Resources and Environment,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Qujing Normal University,Qujing 600511,Yunan,China;Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《地理科学进展》
北大核心
2025年第8期1704-1719,共16页
Progress in Geography
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察项目(2019QZKK0603)。
关键词
跨境铁路
地缘战略
对冲
双层博弈
地缘破碎带
cross-border railways
geopolitical strategies
hedging
two-level game
shatter belt
作者简介
第一作者:吴雯(1999-),女,重庆渝北人,硕士生,研究方向为地缘安全与区域合作。E-mail:wuwen_24@163.com;通信作者:阎建忠(1972-),男,博士,研究员,主要研究方向为土地利用/覆被变化以及全球变化与区域响应。E-mail:yanjzswu@126.com。
