摘要
【目的】加强对森林碳汇与低碳经济发展间互动协调及空间关联的研究,有助于实现区域森林科学管理与经济可持续发展。【方法】以2008—2018年中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的森林碳汇、低碳经济系统指标数据为基础,运用综合评价模型、核密度估计和双变量空间自相关方法,对中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的森林碳汇、低碳经济时空演变以及两者的空间关联性进行分析。【结果】中国森林碳汇的空间格局由“双强核”聚集式演变为“双主核一副核”均衡式;中国低碳经济发展水平不断上升,其空间格局呈现出“带状—团状—面状”的演变趋势。从全局来看,2008年、2013年、2018年的莫兰指数(Moran's I)分别为-0.24、-0.26、-0.26,森林碳汇的“资源诅咒”现象依然存在。从局部来看,森林碳汇和低碳经济的局域空间格局具有低-低聚集和高-低聚集连片分布,以及高-高聚集和低-高聚集分散分布的特征。【结论】应抓住“双碳”窗口期的机遇,凭借森林资源优势推动低碳经济转型,树立“减排增汇”双驱动发展的典型,因地制宜地探索森林碳汇与低碳经济的平衡发展模式。
【Objective】Strengthen the research on the interactive mechanisms and spatial correlation between forest carbon sinks and low-carbon economic development,aiming to provide a scientific foundation for regional forest resource management.【Method】This study leveraged forest carbon sink and low-carbon economy system indicator data from 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China,spanning the years 2008 to 2018.Utilizing a comprehensive evaluation model,kernel density estimation,and bivariated spatial autocorrelation,we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest carbon sinks and low-carbon economies,as well as their spatial correlation characteristics.【Result】The spatial distribution of forest carbon sinks in China is transitioning from a“dual-core dominance”model to a more balanced“dual-core with a secondary core”pattern.Concurrently,the level of low-carbon economic development continues to rise,with its spatial pattern evolving from a“strip-cluster-area”structure.At the macro level,the Moran s I values for 2008,2013,and 2018 are-0.24,-0.26,and-0.26,respectively.These values underscore the persistent presence of the“resource curse”phenomenon.At the micro level,the spatial patterns of forest carbon sinks and low-carbon economies exhibit distinct aggregation characteristics:low-low and high-low aggregations are observed in contiguous distributions,while high-high and low-high aggregations appear in dispersed distributions.【Conclusion】It is imperative to seize the strategic opportunity of the dual-carbon goals(carbon peak and neutrality),leverage our forest resource advantages to facilitate a well-planned low-carbon economic transition,establish exemplary models of dual-driven development featuring both emission reduction and carbon sink enhancement,and explore regionally differentiated approaches to balance forest carbon sequestration with low-carbon economic development.
作者
钟意
曾维忠
王杰
ZHONG Yi;ZENG Weizhong;WANG Jie(College of Management,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;College of Economics,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;College of International Education,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)
出处
《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第4期276-284,共9页
Journal of Nanjing Forestry University:Natural Sciences Edition
基金
国家社科基金一般项目(22BJY129)
国家社科基金青年项目(23CJY061)。
作者简介
第一作者:钟意(zhongyi1@stu.sicau.edu.cn),博士生;通信作者:曾维忠(zwz2011@foxmail.com),教授。
