摘要
研究目标:研究中国新旧动能转换的历史演进及区域特征。研究方法:基于全要素生产率,把经济动能分解为创新动能、要素动能和制度动能,利用熵权-TOPSIS方法构建了新旧动能综合指数以及新动能指数和旧动能指数,借助1998~2017年中国29个省份的面板数据,采用双变量门槛回归,研究了各个省份新旧动能转换的演进路径及其区域特征。研究发现:第一,中国新旧动能转换整体水平较低,不仅各个省份的动能发展很不平衡,而且不同动能对各个省份的驱动作用也明显不同;第二,东部省份的新旧动能转换或者是"结构变迁型"或者是"复合转换型",而中西部省份则大多为"传统发展型";第三,从1998~2017年,中国22个省份的新旧动能转换路径没有发生明显的变化,其余7个省份的新旧动能转换路径则分别呈现"路径反转""路径跟随"或"路径分岔"。研究创新:从理论上刻画了不同省份新旧动能转换可能的类型和路径特征。研究价值:研究不同省份新旧动能转换的演进路径及其相关特征,对于精准研判目前各省份所处的历史阶段及未来趋势具有非常重要的理论及现实意义。
Research Objectives:This article analyzes the historical evolution and regional characteristics of the conversion of new and old driving force in China.Research Methods:On the basis of total factor productivity,we decompose economic driving force into three components:innovation,factors,and institutions.We use the entropy weight-topsis method to construct the new and old driving force comprehensive index,the new driving force index and the old driving force index.Based on a panel data of 29 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to2017,we adopt the two-variable threshold regression to analyze the dynamic path and regional characteristics of the conversion of new and old driving force by provinces and cities.Research Findings:Firstly,the overall level of China’s conversion of new and old driving force is low,the development of driving force between various provinces and cities is very uneven,and the three driving forces have obviously different driving effects in different provinces and cities.Secondly,the conversion of old and new driving force in the eastern provinces and cities is either"the type of structural change"or"the type of composite conversion",and the central and western provinces and cities are"types of traditional development".Thirdly,the conversion paths of new and old driving force in 22 provinces and cities in China have not changed significantly from 1998 to 2017.The converted path of new and old driving force of the remaining seven provinces and cities are in the form of"reverse path","following path"or"forked path"respectively.Research Innovations:We theoretically describe the possible types and path characteristics of the conversion of new and old driving force in different provinces and cities.Research Value:This paper analyzes the evolving path and related characteristics of the new and old kinetic energy conversion in different provinces and cities,it has important academic and policy implications for accurately evaluating the historical stage and predicting the future change of China’s new economic driving forces.
作者
李长英
周荣云
余淼杰
Li Changying;Zhou Rongyun;Yu Miaojie(School of Economics,Shandong University;National School of Development,Peking University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期3-23,共21页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA078、17ZDA040)
国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AZD003)
国家杰出青年基金项目(71625007)
山东省重点研发计划软科学重大项目(2019RZE27002)
山东大学自主创新基金人文社科青年团队项目(IFYT1901)的资助
关键词
新旧动能转换
演进路径
创新动能
要素动能
制度动能
Conversion of New and Old Driving Force
Evolving Path
Innovation
Factors
Institutions
