黄河流域碳排放时空格局演变、影响因素与情景预测分析

Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Evolution, Influencing Factors, and ScenarioPredictions of Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin

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摘要科学估算、分析黄河流域碳排放时空格局、影响因素及情景预测,对黄河流域高质量发展具有重大意义。首先,使用DMSP/OLS(国防气象卫星计划/业务线扫描系统)与NPP/VIIRS(对地观测卫星计划/可见光红外成像辐射仪套件)夜间灯光数据模拟2000—2022年区域碳排放量并分析其时空格局和集聚特征;其次,通过扩展STIRPAT(随机影响回归人口-富裕度-技术)模型和岭回归方法对碳排放影响因素进行分析;最后,根据扩展的STIRPAT模型对不同情景下该区域碳排放的发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:2000—2022年黄河流域碳排放总量呈现上升的趋势,且在地级市层面上呈现显著为正的全局空间自相关,其中山西、陕西、宁夏、内蒙古呈现碳排放“高-高”集聚,青海、四川、甘肃呈现碳排放“低-低”集聚;人口总量、人均GDP、第二产业产值占GDP比例、城镇化水平、能源结构和能源强度都对黄河流域碳排放呈现促进作用,政府干预呈现抑制作用;不同情景预测下,绿色发展情景预计在2035年实现碳达峰,而粗放情景下碳达峰时间延迟至2045年。 Scientifically estimating and analyzing the spatiotemporal pattern,influencing factors,and scenario predictions of carbon emissions in Yellow River Basin is of great significance for its high-quality development.Firstly,DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light data was used to simulate regional carbon emissions from 2000 to 2022 and their spatiotemporal patterns and agglomeration characteristics were analyzed.Secondly,the influencing factors of carbon emissions were analyzed through an extended STIRPAT(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology)model and ridge regression method.Finally,based on the extended STIRPAT model,the development trend of carbon emissions in this region under different scenarios is predicted.The results show that from 2000 to 2022,total carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin showed an upward trend,with a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation at the prefecture-level city level.Among them,Shanxi,Shaanxi,Ningxia,and Inner Mongolia provinces exhibited“high-high”agglomeration of carbon emissions,while Qinghai,Sichuan,and Gansu provinces exhibited“low-low”agglomeration.Total population,per capita GDP,the proportion of secondary industry output value to GDP,urbanization level,energy structure,and energy intensity all contribute to increased carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin,while government intervention has an inhibitory effect.Under different scenario predictions,the green development scenario predicts that carbon emissions will peak in 2035,while under the extensive scenario,the peaking time is delayed until 2045.

作者张一凡 ZHANG Yifan(School of Economics and Management of Xi’an Shiyou University,Xi’an 710065,China)

机构地区西安石油大学经济管理学院

出处《科技和产业》 2025年第13期186-193,共8页 Science Technology and Industry

关键词黄河流域碳排放空间格局影响因素情景预测 STIRPAT(随机影响回归人口-富裕度-技术)模型 Yellow River Basin carbon emissions spatiotemporal pattern influencing factors scenario prediction STIRPAT(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology)model

分类号 X321 [环境科学与工程—环境工程]

作者简介张一凡(1999-),男,河南商丘人,硕士研究生,研究方向为环境经济、区域经济。