摘要
本文综合考量经济产出规模、人口规模、产业结构、能源结构及能源效率等因素对碳排放的影响,基于扩展的Kaya恒等式建立因素分解模型,应用LMDI分解方法对能源消费碳排放进行因素分解。应用该模型对中国1980年～2007年的能源消费碳排放进行分解分析,探讨其主要影响因素的作用机理并量化其贡献率。研究结果表明,经济产出效应对我国该阶段能源消费碳排放的贡献率最大,达到152.73%,其他各影响因素按贡献率绝对值大小依次是:能源强度效应为-79.93%,人口规模效应为20.20%,产业结构效应为7.78%,能源结构效应为-0.77%。研究认为,产业结构整体变化对该阶段碳排放增长未能表现出负效应,其主要原因是产业规模占GDP近半的第二产业的碳排放呈现长期增长态势,其贡献率抵消了第一、三产业对碳排放增长的负效应。目前我国节能减排的重点在于调整产业结构、优化能源结构及提高能源效率。针对实证结果,提出了相应的节能减排政策建议。
In this paper,a decomposition model based on the extended Kaya identity was established,and impacts from economic scales,population sizes,industrial structures,energy mix and energy efficiency on carbon emission were examined in detail with the LMDI method.The model would provide sound evidence for decision making in energy-saving and emission-reduction polices at a more microcosmic level,such as readjustment of industrial structure,optimization of energy mix and improvement of energy efficiency in various industries.Variations in China＇s carbon emission from 1980 to 2007 were studied by using this model,and the mechanism of effects of the action was carefully analyzed and their contributions were quantified as well.Empirical results demonstrated that the economic scale effect,whose contribution ratio reached 152.73%,played a dominant role in increases in China＇s carbon emission,following by the energy efficiency effect was-79.93%,the population size effect was 20.20%,the industrial structure effect was 7.78%,and the energy mix effect was-0.77%,respectively.It was concluded that the industrial structural change showed positive effects on carbon emission growth during this period,due primarily to the carbon emissions from the secondary industry,whose yield scale accounted for half of GDP.This situation maintained a long-term increase.The contribution ratio of the secondary industry to carbon emissions offset the negative effects from the primary and tertiary industry.Concerning current policies about energy-saving and emission-reduction,China should focus on regulating industrial structure,optimizing energy mix,and improving energy efficiency.Corresponding policy suggestions were also given as increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry in national economy,placing emphasis on developing non-fossil-fuel resources,increasing the proportion of natural gas in the primary energy consumption by means of technology,policy and law,promoting energy efficiency,especially reducing energy intense in the secondary industry,advocating the concepts of low-carbon consumption and green consumption,and paving the way to sustainable development.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第12期2072-2079,共8页
Resources Science
基金
国家科技支撑计划重大项目专题(编号:2007BAC03A11-05)
中国博士后科学基金项目(编号:20080440573)
江苏省高校"青蓝工程"优秀青年骨干教师培养项目(2008)
作者简介
朱勤，男，江苏如东人，博士后，副教授，研究方向为复杂系统建模，管理决策分析。E-mail：zhuqin@fudan．edu．cn
通讯作者：彭希哲，E-mail：xzpeng@fudan．edu．cn
