摘要
文章基于Tapio脱钩模型与LMDI分解模型,分析2010—2022年中部六省交通运输业经济发展与碳排放的脱钩关系及驱动因素,并运用脱钩努力模型评估各因素在碳排放脱钩过程中的贡献值。结果表明:碳排放脱钩状态从“弱脱钩”向“强脱钩”转变;经济增长是碳排放增加的主要驱动因素,能源强度是碳排放的核心抑制因素;驱动因素总体上呈现从“无脱钩努力”到“弱脱钩努力”再到“强脱钩努力”的发展趋势,其中,能源强度是促进碳排放脱钩的关键因素。因此,需要在能源结构绿色转型、能源强度管控机制等方面发力,以促进中部地区交通运输业低碳发展。
Based on Tapio decoupling model and LMDI decomposition model,this study analyzes the decoupling relationship and driving factors between the economic development and carbon emission in transportation industry of six central provinces from 2010 to 2022,and uses the decoupling effort model to evaluate the contribution of each factor in carbon emission decoupling process.The results indicate that the decoupling state of carbon emission has shifted from"weak decoupling"to"strong decoupling";economic growth has been the primary driver for the increase of carbon emission,while energy intensity has served as the core restraining factor;the driving factors has generally exhibited a developing trend from"no decoupling effort"to"weak decoupling effort"and then to"strong decoupling effort",in which energy intensity is the key factor to promote carbon emission decoupling.In this regard,efforts should focus on the green transformation of the energy structure and the management mechanism of energy intensity to facilitate low-carbon development in the transportation industry in central China.
作者
彭新宇
杨平
曾喜梅
Peng Xinyu;Yang Ping;Zeng Ximei(School of Economics&Management,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha,Hunan 410114,China)
出处
《长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版)》
2025年第4期95-109,共15页
Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Social Science
基金
教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(23YJC630007)
湖南省自然科学基金青年项目(2024JJ6072)
湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会一般项目(XSP24YBZ209)
长沙理工大学交能融合创新发展基金项目(JNRH02)。
作者简介
彭新宇(1981-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事产业结构与产业融合、农业与资源环境经济研究;杨平(2003-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为国际贸易学;曾喜梅(1991-),女,讲师,主要从事数据科学与优化决策、资源与环境经济研究。
