摘要
基于改进的Kaya等式和LMDI分解法,对1990～2008年间中国CO2排放量变动的影响因素进行效应测算与贡献率分析,研究表明:CO2排放量变动的影响因素可以分解为排放强度效应、能源强度效应、经济效应和人口效应;经济效应和人口效应刺激CO2排放量增长,排放强度效应和能源强度效应抑制CO2排放量增长,但这种抑制作用难以抵销由经济效应拉动的CO2排放量的增长。最后,结合实证研究结果,提出相应的政策性建议。
This article calculates impacting effect and contributing rate of influencing factors of variation in CO2 emission of China from 1990 to 2008 based on improved Kaya Identity and LMDI method.The results suggest that: the influencing factors can be decomposed to emission intensity,energy intensity,economic effect and population effect;economic effect and population effect stimulates the growth of CO2 emission,while the emission intensity and energy intensity inhibits the growth of CO2 emission which hardly offsets the growth posed by economic effect.Finally,several policy recommendations are proposed in view of the empirical results.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第12期55-59,共5页
Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70903010)
教育部高等学校博士学科点专项基金项目(20090041120048)
