摘要
随着数字浪潮的快速兴起和广泛渗透,数字赋能为缓解供应链不确定性、提振供应链可持续发展提供了新机遇。本文利用2012—2021年中国上市公司数据,测度了中国上市企业的供应链风险,在此基础上实证考察了数字化转型对企业供应链风险的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:第一,数字化转型显著降低了企业供应链总体风险和内外部风险,相较于中小企业和非数字经济行业企业,数字化转型对大规模企业和数字经济行业企业供应链风险的抑制效果更为明显。第二,企业供应链配置、地理分布和合作者性质的多元化是数字化转型抑制企业供应链风险的重要渠道,且短期内数字化转型的风险抑制效应主要来自数字技术应用,在长期则是数字技术开发。第三,数字化转型在抑制本企业供应链风险的同时,通过数字溢出和风险传染的双重传递路径抑制了其供应链上下游关联企业(供应商及客户)的供应链风险,且该效果亦可实现跨级传递。第四,数字化转型对企业供应链风险的抑制作用可通过共享客户(供应商)进行链式传导,进而抑制同游企业供应链风险。本文拓宽了企业数字化和供应链溢出效应的研究边界,丰富了企业供应链稳定性的影响因素与实现机制研究,对优化我国内循环的发展格局具有重要启示。
Against the backdrop of the profound adjustment of the global economic landscape and the new round of technological revolution,digital transformation has become the core driver for reconstructing the industrial ecosystem and reshaping competitive advantages.The cluster breakthroughs of digital technologies such as industrial internet,big data,and artificial intelligence(AI)not only bring development opportunities for efficiency improvement and enhanced resilience to supply chain networks but also give rise to new risk transmission paths due to their technical complexity and system correlation.Especially,in the macro environment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the intensification of geopolitical conflicts,the global supply chain is showing a trend of“shortening”and“nearshoring”,and enterprises are facing multiple challenges such as disordered supply and demand matching,intensified logistics disruptions,and prominent information island effects.How to build a supply chain system with stronger risk resistance and a higher level of sustainable development through digital transformation has become a major issue of common concern in both the academic and practical fields.This paper uses the data of Chinese listed companies from 2012 to 2021 to measure the supply chain risks of Chinese listed enterprises.On this basis,it empirically examines the impact of digital transformation on the supply chain risks of enterprises and its mechanism.The research findings are as follows.Firstly,digital transformation significantly reduces the overall supply chain risks and internal and external risks of enterprises.Meanwhile,compared with small and mediumsized enterprises and enterprises not in the digital industries,the inhibitory effect of digital transformation on supply chain risks of large-scale enterprises and enterprises in the digital industries is more obvious.Secondly,the diversification of enterprise supply chain configuration,geographical distribution,and the nature of partners is an important channel for digital transformation to suppress enterprise supply chain risks.In the short term,the risk suppression effect of digital transformation mainly comes from the application of digital technology,while in the long term,it is the development of digital technology.Thirdly,while digital transformation suppresses the supply chain risks of an enterprise,it suppresses the supply chain risks of its upstream and downstream related enterprises(suppliers and customers)through the dual transmission paths of digital spillover and risk contagion,and this effect can also be transmitted across levels.Fourthly,the inhibitory effect of digital transformation on the supply chain risks of enterprises can be transmitted in a chain through shared customers(suppliers),thereby suppressing the supply chain risks of peer enterprises.The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,from the perspective of supply chain diversification,this paper examines the internal mechanism by which digital transformation suppresses the supply chain risks of enterprises.It not only enriches the research conclusions on the economic effects of digital transformation but also provides research ideas for further in-depth exploration of supply chain risks.Secondly,based on the annual reports of listed companies,this paper measures the supply chain risks of Chinese listed companies by using data mining and text analysis methods,providing a feasible measurement method for subsequent research on the supply chain risks of Chinese enterprises.Thirdly,regarding the research design,this paper not only examines the impact of digital transformation on the supply chain risks of enterprises but also further delves into the spillover effect of digitalization and the contagion effect of supply chain risks,and deeply explores its transmission effect and internal mechanism from the perspective of two-way transmission in the supply chain.Overall,this paper broadens the research boundaries of enterprise digitalization and supply chain spillover effects,enriches research on the influencing factors and realization mechanisms of enterprise supply chain stability,and has important inspirations for optimizing the development pattern of domestic circulation in China.
作者
梁贺
赵睿
杨淑珺
LIANG He;ZHAO Rui;YANG Shujun(Tianjin University of Finance&Economics,Tianjin,China;Nankai University,Tianjin,China)
出处
《经济学动态》
北大核心
2025年第6期88-107,共20页
Economic Perspectives
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“超大规模国内市场优势与国内外市场联动的理论机制与实现路径研究”(23ZDA054)
天津社会科学基金青年项目“内外联动投资提升本土企业供应链韧性的机制与路径研究”(TJLJQN24-004)。
关键词
数字化转型
供应链风险
供应链溢出
风险传染
Digital Transformation
Supply Chain Risk
Supply Chain Spillover
Risk Contagion
作者简介
梁贺,电子邮箱:lianghenk@outlook.com;杨淑珺,电子邮箱:yangshujun2203@163.com;通讯作者:赵睿,,电子邮箱:nkzhaor@163.com。
