摘要
考察县城人口变化格局及其影响因素是因地制宜推进以县城为载体的新型城镇化建设、促进城乡融合发展的重要基础。文章构建中国式城乡现代化进程中县城人口变化的“格局—规模—功能—机理”分析框架,探讨中国式城乡现代化进程中县城人口变化与城乡发展的内在逻辑,并综合运用位序规模、专业化指数和梯度提升决策树(GBDT)等分析方法考察了中国县城的人口变动现状并探讨相关影响因素及其异质性。研究发现:①县城人口占城镇人口比重不断下降,人口流失县城北多南少,且集中分布在东北地区和省际交界地带;②县城人口规模体系呈扁平化,不同主体功能区类型的县城人口变化差异并不显著,其中城市化地区县城、农产品主产区县城的人口增长与距离中心城市远近密切相关;③经济发展是影响县城人口变动的关键性因素且影响程度不断提升,基础设施与公共服务的影响变化不大且趋于减弱,政策、区位对县城人口变动的影响相对有限,各因素对不同区域县城人口变动的影响存在明显空间异质性。
Examining the population change pattern and its influencing factors is an important foundation for promoting the construction of new-type urbanization with the county as the carrier and promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas according to local conditions.This paper constructs an analytical framework of"pattern-scalefunction-mechanism"of the demographic change of counties in the process of Chinese-style urban-rural modernization,and explores the internal logic of the demographic change of counties and urban-rural development in the process of Chinese-style urban-rural modernization.It comprehensively uses the methods of rank-size,specialization index and gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)to investigate the population change of counties,and explore the relevant influencing factors and their heterogeneity.It's found that:1)The proportion of county population to urban population is declining,and the population loss of county is more serious in the north of China than that in the south of China,and is concentrated in the northeast region and the inter-provincial border areas.2)The population size system of the counties exhibits the relatively flattened feature,the population change of counties in different types of main functional areas is not significant.The population growth is closely related to the distance from the central city in counties which are the urbanization areas and the main producing areas of agricultural products.3)Economic development is the key factor affecting the population change of counties,its influence degree is constantly increasing,the impact of infrastructure and public services on population change in counties has not changed much and tends to be stable,the impact of policies and locations on population changes in counties is relatively limited,and the fluctuation degree of different factors on the population change of counties has obvious spatial heterogeneity.
作者
吴康
邱灵
宋嘉卓
耿一睿
WU Kang;QIU Ling;SONG Jiazhuo;GENG Yirui(School of Urban Economics and Public Administration,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Megaregions Sustainable Development Simulation,Beijing 100070,China;Institute of Industrial and Technological Economics,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《经济地理》
北大核心
2025年第3期52-63,共12页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42171216)
首都经济贸易大学重大培育项目(ZD202302)。
关键词
县城
人口变化
人口收缩
空间格局
影响因素
中国式城乡现代化
梯度提升决策树
county
population change
population shrinkage
spatial pattern
influencing factors
Chinese-style urbanrural modernization
gradient boosting decision tree(GBTD)
作者简介
吴康(1984-),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为城市经济与空间治理、大数据与城市可持续发展模拟。E-mail:wukang@cueb.edu.cn;通信作者:宋嘉卓(1996-),女,博士研究生,研究方向为经济地理、区域与城市经济。E-mail:sjz0613@yeah.net。
