摘要
随着中国国力持续增长并日益展示“自信有为”,美国政府对来自中国的单方面威胁感知不断积累,逐渐调整长期以来的接触战略,以重塑“去中国化”产业链的极端方式抑制中国发展。文章基于安全化理论,分析美国“去中国化”产业链重塑的政策逻辑与演化过程,发现几届美国政府从预备脱钩、全面脱钩到精准脱钩,以产业链“去中国化”推动制造业“去中国化”,稳步推进对华产业链重塑和制造业回流;进而剖析重塑战略的行动策略和实际影响,美国从增加在华企业经营成本和补贴本土企业两方面设计行动策略,挤压在华企业经营利润,两党分别坚持“补贴吸引+盟友配合”和“关税压迫+美国优先”的策略路线,从劳动力密集型产业和生产环节的消费品逐渐向资本技术密集型制成品和中间品推进“去中国化”;根据贸易数据计算的各种指数显示,中美在劳动力密集型产业和生产环节脱钩迹象明显,重塑战略加速了两国产业链脱钩,干扰了中国自主可控产业链建设的进程。面对美国产业链再安全化的可能升级,中国需要尽早预设应对策略。
As China's national strength continues to grow and increasingly assertive,the U.S.government has intensified its perception of unilateral threats from China,shifting away from its long-standing engagement strategy toward a radical reshaping of global industrial chains aimed at“decoupling”.Based on securitization theory,this article analyzes the policy logic and evolutionary trajectory behind the United States'efforts to reshape industrial chains and decouple from China.It finds that successive U.S.administrations have progressed from preparatory to comprehensive and then targeted decoupling,aiming to drive manufacturing reshoring through industrial chain restructuring.The study further investigates the strategic approaches and tangible impacts of this restructuring:the U.S.seeks to raise operational costs for firms in China while subsidizing domestic industries,squeezing the profit margins of China-based enterprises.The Democratic and Republican parties have adopted distinct policy trajectories.Democrats emphasizing subsidies and allied coordination,while Republicans pursue tariff-drivenpressureand“America First”unilateralism.“Decoupling”has expanded from labor-intensive consumer goods to capitaland technology-intensive manufactured and intermediate products.Trade indices reveal evident signs of decoupling in labor-intensive sectors,with the U.S.strategy accelerating industrial separation and disrupting China's efforts to build autonomous and controllable industrial chains.In light of the potential escalation of U.S.industrial chain resecuritization,China must develop timely countermeasures to mitigate future risks.
作者
杨勇
胡渊
Yang Yong;Hu Yuan(Institute of American and Canadian Economics(IUCE);Center for Economic Development Research(CEDR),Wuhan Universit;School of Economics and Management,Hubei University of Technology)
出处
《当代亚太》
北大核心
2025年第2期31-59,171,172,共31页
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“RCEP原产地规则对中国参与亚太区域价值链的影响及对策研究”(项目编号:23BGJ030)的阶段性研究成果
国家自然科学基金面上项目“环境规制与‘中国式’产能过剩的防治”(批准号:71873097)的资助。
关键词
安全化理论
产业链重塑
盟伴体系
去中心化
Securitization theory
industrial chain restructuring
alliance system
decentralization
作者简介
杨勇,武汉大学美国加拿大经济研究所、武汉大学经济发展研究中心副教授;胡渊,湖北工业大学经济与管理学院教授。
