摘要
黄河流域是我国重要的粮食产区,其粮食体系韧性直接关系到国家粮食安全。文章基于2013—2022年黄河流域九大省区的面板数据,构建粮食体系韧性综合指标,运用熵值法、泰尔指数和地理探测器,分析黄河流域粮食体系韧性的区域分异和驱动因素。研究发现:黄河流域粮食体系韧性水平在2013—2022年整体呈上升趋势;黄河流域粮食体系韧性水平的总体差异显著扩大,上中下游区域差异主要体现在中下游区域内差异,但上游区域内差异加剧是构成总体差异增加的主要来源,而粮食功能区差异主要体现在区域间差异增加;财政支农、地区经济水平、科技因素以及对外开放是影响粮食体系韧性的重要因素,各影响因子交互作用均呈现双因子增强和非线性增强关系。综上,根据异质性特征和影响因子分析,为提升黄河流域粮食体系韧性提出政策建议。
The Yellow River Basin is an important grain producing area in China,and its grain system toughness is directly related to national food security.Based on the panel data of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2013 to 2022,the article constructed a comprehensive resilience index of grain system,and applied the entropy method,the Thiel index and geographic probes to analyze the regional differences and driving factors of resilience of grain system in the Yellow River Basin.The study found that:The resilience level of the grain system in the Yellow River Basin showed an overall upward trend during the period 2013 to 2022;the overall difference in the resilience level of grain system in the Yellow River Basin had expanded significantly,with the upstream,midstream and downstream region differences mainly reflecting the intra-regional differences in the midstream and downstream,the intensification of intra-regional differences in the upstream was the main source that constitutes the increase in the overall differences,while the differences in grain functional areas were mainly reflected in the increase of inter-regional differences;financial support for agriculture,regional economic level,scientific and technological factors,as well as opening to the outside world were important factors affecting the resilience of the grain system,and the interaction of influence factors showed a two-factor enhancement and a non-linear enhancement relationship.In summary,according to the heterogeneous characteristics and the analysis of influence factors,policy recommendations are proposed to enhance the resilience of the grain system in the Yellow River Basin.
作者
郑骏川
李璨
周世昕
ZHENG Junchuan;LI Can;ZHOU Shixin(College of Economics and Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China)
出处
《现代农业》
2025年第1期26-37,共12页
Modern Agriculture
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“中国对外直接投资韧性的测度与提升路径研究”(22XJL002)
重庆市社会科学规划一般项目“数字经济赋能粮食安全韧性的效应测度及提升策略研究”(2023NDYB52)
重庆市统计科学研究项目“重庆市粮食安全评价与保障”研究(2022KY15)。
关键词
粮食体系韧性
区域差异
影响因素
resilience of grain system
regional differences
influence factors
作者简介
郑骏川(1985-),男,副教授,博士,研究方向:农村产业经济、农村区域经济;通信作者:李璨(1994-),女,硕士在读,研究方向:农村产业经济。
