中国石油资源产业链供应链安全评价

Security evaluation of industry and supply chains of petroleum resources in China

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摘要石油作为战略性矿产资源,在中国经济发展与社会稳定中发挥着关键作用,但中国石油对外依存度在2023年约为74%,远超50%的安全线。在这一背景下,如何构建中国石油资源产业链供应链安全评价指标体系成为当下亟待解决的问题。为此从资源获取、资源流通与资源转化3个层面出发,构建评价指标体系。在对2000—2021年指标进行评级划分后,分别对指标进行均权与变权综合分析,得出研究期内安全水平变动情况,进一步结合障碍度与贡献度模型分析影响产业链供应链安全的因素。研究结果表明:(1)中国石油资源产业链供应链安全呈现出周期性变动,研究期内包含四个先上升后下降的小周期,同时整个研究期同样呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,说明中国石油资源产业链供应链安全虽然有波动但是围绕中心相对稳定,且波动呈现出周期性波动;(2)资源转化安全是阻碍中国石油资源产业链供应链安全的主要因素,这与中国在石油资源产业链供应链位置较低有关,且会影响资源的获取安全与流通安全;(3)石油资源产业链供应链安全的主要贡献因素相对复杂,第一周期内流通安全与转化安全为主要贡献因素,第二周期为转化安全,第三周期为流通安全,第四周期内三种因素的贡献度相对持平。针对上述结论,分别从资源获取、资源流通与资源转化三方面出发,为石油资源产业链供应链安全提供政策建议。本文研究为维护中国石油资源安全提出方向与思路,为增强产业链供应链安全提供参考支撑。 Petroleum,as a strategic mineral resource,plays a key role in China’s economic development and social stability.However,China’s external dependence on petroleum is expected to be around 74%in 2023,far exceeding the safety line of 50%.In this context,how to construct an evaluation index system for the security of China’s petroleum resource industry and supply chains has become an urgent problem to be solved.To this end,an evaluation index system is constructed from three levels:resource acquisition,resource circulation,and resource transformation.After rating and dividing the indicators from 2000 to 2021,a comprehensive analysis is conducted on both average and variable weights of the indicators to determine the changes in safety levels during the research period.Further analysis is conducted by combining obstacle and contribution models to identify factors that affect the safety of the industry and supply chains.The main research conclusions obtained are as follows:①the supply chain security of China’s petroleum resource industry chain shows cyclical changes,and it is found that there are four small cycles that first increased and then decreased during the research period.At the same time,the entire research period also shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,indicating that although the supply chain security of China’s petroleum resource industry chain fluctuates,it is relatively stable around the center,and the fluctuations show cyclical fluctuations.②The security of resource conversion is the main factor hindering the security of China’s petroleum resource industry chain and supply chain,which is related to China’s lower position in the petroleum resource industry chain and can affect the security of resource acquisition and circulation.③The main contributing factors to the security of the petroleum resource industry chain and supply chain are relatively complex.In the first cycle,circulation safety and conversion safety are the main contributing factors,conversion safety is the second cycle,circulation safety is the third cycle,and the contribution of the three factors is relatively equal in the fourth cycle.Based on the above conclusions,policy recommendations are provided for the security of the petroleum resource industry chain and supply chain from three aspects:resource acquisition,resource circulation,and resource transformation.This paper proposes directions and ideas for maintaining the security of China’s petroleum resources,and contributes to enhancing the security of the industry and supply chains.

作者郑明贵倪京生罗来文董娟 ZHENG Minggui;NI Jingsheng;LUO Laiwen;DONG Juan(School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China)

机构地区江西理工大学经济管理学院

出处《中国矿业》北大核心 2025年第2期99-110,共12页 China Mining Magazine

基金国家社会科学基金项目“中国战略性矿产资源产业链供应链安全稳定战略研究(2025—2060)”资助(编号:22XGL003) 江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目“要素投入结构对资源型企业绿色全要素生产率的影响研究”资助(编号:GJJ2200870) 江西理工大学高层次人才科研启动项目“ICT资本深化对资源型企业绿色发展的影响效应与机制研究”资助(编号:205200100655)。

关键词石油战略性矿产资源产业链供应链安全评价蒙特卡洛模拟贡献度模型障碍度模型 petroleum strategic mineral resource industry chain supply chain security evaluation Monte Carlo simulation contribution model obstacle model