摘要
可靠的脆弱性评估模型及空间分异特性研究有助于提升灾害应急处置能力。针对传统脆弱性评估只考虑基础设施的抵御能力且权重计算方法单一等问题,该文围绕暴露度、敏感性、应对能力将城市基础条件与人的主动应对能力纳入指标体系,构建洪涝脆弱性评估模型,并采用博弈论组合优化主客观权重值。以洪涝风险较高的西安市为例,借助多源数据在1 km栅格尺度中进行模型应用,并通过全局Moran's I和局部空间关联指数(LISA)分析脆弱性空间集聚特征。结果表明:西安市暴雨洪涝脆弱性呈现出显著的自相关与空间分异特性,整体脆弱性评估等级偏低,其主要致脆因子为暴露度较高且应对能力较弱,在高与较高脆弱性等级区间中,敏感应对能力不足致脆型和强综合脆弱型居多。该模型可为城市暴雨洪涝脆弱性的减缓与治理等提供启示和借鉴。
[Objective]Extreme precipitation events have increased globally in recent years,leading to more frequent and intense urban flooding that seriously threatens public safety.Reliable models for assessing storm waterlogging vulnerability and studies on spatial differentiation are essential for effective disaster prevention and mitigation.However,traditional models often face two main limitations.First,traditional models frequently overlook human adaptive responses to flooding and rely on single-weight calculation methods,reducing the accuracy of their insights.Second,traditional models generally apply to larger scales,such as cities or regions,and fail to capture smaller-scale spatial differences in vulnerability.This study introduces a refined storm waterlogging vulnerability assessment model that includes exposure,sensitivity,and coping capacity.The model allows researchers to reveal the spatial clustering of storm waterlogging vulnerability in more detail,providing more in-depth insights into areas most prone to flooding.[Methods]To establish a comprehensive assessment system,this study combined city-specific conditions with human adaptive responses.Nine key indicators,such as annual rainfall,were selected to capture urban-specific vulnerability.Subjective weights were assigned based on an improved expert scoring method,effectively incorporating expert insights.To enhance objectivity,the entropy method was used to calculate objective weights.Then,these subjective and objective weights were combined and optimized using the Nash equilibrium equation to achieve a balanced vulnerability evaluation.Multisource data and ArcGIS software enabled the visualization of storm waterlogging vulnerability on a 1 km grid scale in Xi'an.Global Moran's I and local indicators of spatial association(LISA)score clustering were used to analyze spatial patterns in storm waterlogging vulnerability,revealing clusters and trends across the city.In addition,a vulnerability triangle classified vulnerability levels into eight distinct types,highlighting dominant factors across regions and supporting targeted resilience planning.[Results]The vulnerability assessment showed that areas with high and relatively high vulnerability to urban storm waterlogging mainly clustered in the central old city within the Third Ring Road.This area primarily consisted of various functional zones with hard-paved surfaces,dense construction,intensive development,and high population density.In contrast,areas with low and relatively low vulnerability were mainly clustered in Chang'an,Huyi,Lintong,Yanliang,Zhouzhi,and Lantian Districts,which consisted mostly of forest and agricultural lands,providing high ecological resilience.LISA clustering analysis revealed that storm waterlogging vulnerability had a clear spatial clustering pattern with a significant positive spatial correlation.Eight storm waterlogging vulnerability types are identified:strongly integrated vulnerability(ESC),sensitivity-dominated(S),exposure and sensitivity-dominated(ES),sensitivity and coping capability dominated(SC),coping capability-dominated(C),exposure and coping capability-dominated(EC),weakly integrated vulnerability(O),and exposure-dominated(E)types.The ESC type mainly appeared in the northwest and northern areas of Xi'an;the S and ES types were concentrated within the central urban area;the SC types appeared around the city center;the C types were found in the eastern regions;the EC types occupied much of the southern area of the city;and the O and E types were less common and appeared sporadically in various locations.In lower vulnerability areas,the C types were predominant.In lower to moderate vulnerability areas,the EC types were the most common.In higher vulnerability areas,the SC and ESC types were the most frequent.[Conclusions]The proposed method provides a reliable scientific approach to assessing storm waterlogging vulnerability.It effectively visualizes quantitative data and identifies key factors influencing vulnerability across regions.The findings support the creation of storm waterlogging risk maps and indicate targeted disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.
作者
魏盛宇
翟越
赵廿
WEI Shengyu;ZHAI Yue;ZHAO Nian(College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,China;School of Architecture,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710061,China)
出处
《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第1期174-185,共12页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
陕西省联合基金项目(2022KXJ-107)。
关键词
暴雨洪涝
脆弱性
组合赋权
空间分异
公共安全
storm waterlogging
vulnerability
portfolio empowerment
spatial differentiation
public safety
作者简介
魏盛宇(1998-),男,博士研究生;通信作者:翟越,教授,E-mail:zy@chd.edu.cn。
