摘要
交通运输业是国民经济的基础行业,也是碳排放大户。本文以河北省为研究区,采用排放因子法核算2010—2020年交通运输领域各类能源的碳排放量,运用拟合回归对2021—2025年各类能源消费量进行预测,然后据此计算2021—2025年交通运输领域不同能源的碳排放量。结果发现:2010—2020年,河北省交通运输碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,年均增长2.1%;各类能源碳排放占比变化较大,柴油碳排放量年均下降1.8%,电力碳排放量年均增加1.6%;河北省交通运输碳排放强度呈波动下降趋势。预测结果显示,2021—2025年,河北省交通运输碳排放量仍呈上升趋势,相比2020年,2025年碳排放量将增加27.4%。因此,河北省要因地制宜,多措并举,有效控制交通运输碳排放,以实现碳达峰碳中和目标。
The transportation industry is the fundamental industry of the national economy and also a major contributor to carbon emissions.Taking Hebei province as the research area,the emission factor method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of various types of energy in the transportation sector from 2010 to 2020 in this paper,and fitting regression is used to predict the consumption of various types of energy from 2021 to 2025,and then the carbon emissions of different energy sources in the transportation sector from 2021 to 2025 are calculated based on this.The results show that from 2010 to 2020,the carbon emissions from transportation in Hebei province showed an overall upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 2.1%;the proportion of carbon emissions from various energy sources had changed significantly,with an average annual decrease of 1.8%in diesel emissions and an average annual increase of 1.6%in electricity emissions;the carbon emission intensity of transportation in Hebei province showed a fluctuating downward trend.The prediction results show that from 2021 to 2025,the carbon emissions from transportation in Hebei province are still on the rise,and compared to 2020,the carbon emissions in 2025 will increase by 27.4%.Therefore,Hebei province needs to adapt to local conditions and take multiple measures to effectively control transportation carbon emissions,in order to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.
作者
刘子耀
王晨光
李双江
LIU Ziyao;WANG Chenguang;LI Shuangjiang(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Hebei University of Science and Technology,Shijiazhuang 050018,China)
出处
《中国资源综合利用》
2024年第4期180-182,189,共4页
China Resources Comprehensive Utilization
基金
河北省重点研发计划项目(21374001D)。
关键词
交通运输
碳排放
排放因子法
拟合回归
预测
河北省
transportation
carbon emissions
emission factor method
fitting regression
prediction
Hebei Province
作者简介
刘子耀(2002—),男,河北石家庄人,本科在读。研究方向:交通碳排放;通信作者:李双江(1978—),男,河北献县人,副教授。研究方向:生态系统碳通量。
