摘要
随着“双碳”战略的推进,中国对天然气的需求与日俱增,天然气对外依存度逐渐升高,为保证中国进口天然气的稳定供应,对其运输进行脆弱性分析极为必要。基于VSD评估框架,从暴露度、敏感性、适应能力3个维度建立脆弱性评价指标体系,结合SERV模型构建改进后的计算方程,定量分析中国进口天然气运输脆弱性,并建立因子贡献度模型识别主要影响因子。研究结果表明:中国进口天然气运输脆弱性大致经历了高速增长、小幅下降、小幅上升和波动下降4个阶段;脆弱性的3个维度随时间变化呈现不同的变化趋势;从指标体系中识别出10项指标对中国进口天然气运输脆弱性影响较大。为降低中国进口天然气运输脆弱性,应加强管网建设,做好海运航线规划;加快储气调峰设施建设;深化合作,优化天然气进口来源结构;加速能源结构调整,提升应对进口价格波动能力。
With the promotion of the"dual carbon"strategy,China's demand for natural gas is steadily increasing,leading to a gradual rise in its reliance on foreign sources.In order to ensure the stable supply of imported natural gas in China,it is extremely necessary to conduct vulnerability analysis on its transportation.Based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram,a vulnerability assessment index system is established encompassing three dimensions:exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability.The enhanced calculation equation is constructed utilizing the SERV model to quantitatively analyze the vulnerability of China's imported natural gas transportation,while a factor contribution model is developed to identify the key influencing factors.And the following research results are obtained.Firstly,the vulnerability of China's imported natural gas transportation has roughly gone through four stages:rapid growth,slight decline,marginal increase,and fluctuating decline.Secondly,the three dimensions of vulnerability exhibit different trends over time.Thirdly,there are 10 indicators identified from the index system that have a great impact on the transportation vulnerability of China's imported natural gas.In conclusion,to reduce the vulnerability of China's imported natural gas transportation,it is imperative to bolster pipeline network infrastructure and make good shipping route planning.Additionally,expediting the development of gas storage and peak regulation facilities is crucial.Furthermore,deepening cooperation and optimizing the source composition of natural gas imports are essential steps.Lastly,accelerate the transformation of energy structure and improve the ability to cope with international price fluctuations.
作者
李宏勋
赵颖
周紫璐
LI Hongxun;ZHAO Ying;ZHOU Zilu(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,Shandong,China)
出处
《中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）》
2024年第2期19-28,共10页
Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY078)
山东省社会科学规划数字山东研究专项(20CSDJ69)。
关键词
进口天然气
脆弱性
VSD评估框架
SERV模型
因子贡献度
imported natural gas
vulnerability
VSD evaluation framework
SERV model
factor contribution degree
作者简介
李宏勋(1964—),男,河南柘城人,中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院教授,研究方向为石油与天然气工业经济。
