摘要
基于传统传染病模型、综合考虑客流流动传染和病毒传播特点,建立了TransSEQICR模型。通过对模型的平衡点、基本再生数及特征值的求解,反解铁路客流控制量。使用该模型对2022年两城市间疫情传播趋势进行模拟,对比分析不同客流控制情况下的疫情传播规模。研究结果表明,通过模型求解可得到合理的客流控制量,以此为依据可有效限制铁路客流引发的疫情传播,为铁路部门未来面对各类传染病时的运营与科学防控提供决策支持。
The Trans-SEQICR model was established on the basis of traditional infectious disease models,taking into account the characteristics of passenger flow transmission and virus transmission.By solving the equilibrium point,basic regeneration number,and eigenvalues of the model,the control amount of railway passenger flow is inversely solved.Finally,the model is used to simulate the epidemic spread trend between the two cities in 2022,and to compare and analyze the scale of epidemic spread under different levels of passenger flow control.The research results indicate that reasonable passenger flow control can be obtained through model solving,which can effectively limit the spread of the epidemic caused by railway passenger flow and provide decision-making support for the future operation and scientific prevention and control of various infectious diseases in the railway department.
作者
王宇
董煜
WANG Yu;DONG Yu(School of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian Liaoning 116028,China)
出处
《铁路节能环保与安全卫生》
2023年第6期24-32,共9页
Railway Energy Saving & Environmental Protection & Occupational Safety and Health
基金
国家自然科学基金-面上项目(51971047)
辽宁省自然科学基金计划项目(2023-BS-172)。
关键词
铁路
突发疫情
防控
客流控制
传染病模型
基本再生数
Railway
Sudden epidemic situation
Prevention and control
Passenger flow control
Infectious disease model
Basic reproductive number
作者简介
王宇(1979-),男,副教授,博士,研究方向为铁路运输组织;通信作者:董煜(1998-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为铁路运输组织,E-mail:dongyu982200@163.com。
