摘要
多式联运助力实现“双碳”目标,港口多式联运“公转铁”已成大势所趋,但低碳转型仍受阻碍。运用演化博弈理论构建地方政府、货物托运人和港口多式联运企业之间的三方演化博弈模型,以分析纯策略和混合策略均衡点的稳定性,得出不同条件下的演化稳定策略组合,继而应用Matlab2020a仿真分析,探讨各参数变化对演化博弈过程和结果的影响。研究发现:地方政府制定支持力度的高低取决于其所能回报的社会效益与投入的引导、补贴成本之间的差值大小;地方政府支持力度的高低不干扰货物托运人和港口多式联运企业“公转铁”的选择结果;公路运输风险上升、企业重选承运人成本下降或碳排放成本升高都会拉动“铁水联运”的市场需求。
Multimodal transportation helps to achieve the goal of“double carbon”.Port multimodal transport“transit rail”has become the general trend,but the low-carbon transition is still hindered.A tripartite evolutionary game model among local governments,cargo shippers and port multimodal transport enterprises is constructed by using evolutionary game theory,and the stability of equilibrium points of pure strategy and mixed strategy is analyzed in order to obtain the combination of evolutionary stability strategies under different conditions.And then Matlab2020a simulation analysis is applied to explore the influence of parameter changes on the process and results of evolutionary game.The results show that the level of local government support depends on the difference between the social benefits it can return and the cost of input guidance and subsidies;the level of local government support does not interfere with the selection of“transit rail”by cargo shippers and port multimodal transport enterprises;and the increasing risk of highway transportation,the decreasing cost of re-carrier,or the increasing costs of carbon emission will drive market demand for“rail-water combined transportation”.
作者
张慧
周信哲
陈月艳
ZHANG Hui;ZHOU Xinzhe;CHEN Yueyan(School of Management,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018,China;Hangzhou Dianzi University Information Engineering College,Hangzhou Zhejiang 311305,China)
出处
《杭州电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
2023年第6期26-37,共12页
Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(20BGL293)。
关键词
政府支持
多式联运企业
低碳转型
三方演化博弈
仿真分析
government support
multimodal transport enterprises
low-carbon transition
tripartite evolutionary game
simulation analysis
作者简介
张慧(1979—),女,河南禹州人,教授,创新管理与物流管理.
