“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家高质量发展的影响及机制研究——基于双重差分模型的实证分析被引量：2

Research on the Impact and Mechanism of the Belt and Road Initiative on the High-quality Developmentof Countries Along the Route: Empirical Analysis Based on Difference-in-Difference Model

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摘要基于2011—2020年101个国家的面板数据,从高标准发展、可持续发展、惠民生发展三个维度构建高质量发展水平综合评价指标体系,并据此对沿线国家高质量发展水平进行测度和评估,采用双重差分法实证检验“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家高质量发展的影响,并探讨其作用机制。研究发现:(1)“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家高质量发展有显著促进作用,在稳健性以及内生性检验后这一结论依然成立;(2)“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家高标准发展、可持续发展、惠民生发展均有促进作用,并对可持续发展的促进效应最明显;(3)“一带一路”倡议对中国非邻近国家、高收入国家高质量发展具有显著促进作用;(4)政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通以及资金融通在“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家高质量发展的促进效应中发挥了重要中介作用。 Based on the panel data of 101 countries from 2011 to 2020,a comprehensive evaluation index system of high-quality development level is constructed from three dimensions:high stan⁃dards,sustainability and people’s livelihood.Based on this,the high-quality development level of countries along the route is measured and evaluated.The difference-in-differences method is used to empirically test the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the high-quality development of countries along the route,and its mechanism of action is investigated.The study found that:(1)The Belt and Road Initiative has significantly promoted the high-quality development of countries along the route,and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness and endogenous tests;(2)The Belt and Road Initiative has a promoting effect on the high standards,sustainability and people’s livelihood development of countries along the route,and has the most obvious promoting effect on sustainable development;(3)The Belt and Road Initiative has a significant role in promoting the high-quality development of China’s non-neighboring countries and high-income countries;(4)Poli⁃cy communication,facility connectivity,unimpeded trade and financial integration play an important intermediary role in the promotion effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on the high-quality develop⁃ment of countries along the route.

作者胡颖李维 Hu Ying;Li Wei

机构地区新疆财经大学国际经贸学院

出处《金融理论与实践》北大核心 2023年第11期24-38,共15页 Financial Theory and Practice

基金国家社科基金“以中哈产能合作促进区域命运共同体建设研究”(18XGJ002) 2023年自治区研究生创新项目“一带一路”高质量建设推进沿线国家减贫的机制与效应研究(XJ2023G246)的阶段性成果。

关键词 “一带一路”倡议高质量发展双重差分法 the belt and road initiative high quality development double difference method

分类号 F125 [经济管理—世界经济]

作者简介胡颖(1973—),女,新疆乌鲁木齐人,博士,教授,研究方向为国际贸易与跨国投资理论及政策;李维(1997—),男,贵州遵义人,硕士研究生,研究方向为中国与“一带一路”沿线国家经贸合作。