增长引擎转换与经济波动被引量：1

Transformation of the Growth Engine and Economic Fluctuations

导出

摘要构建新发展格局需要牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点。本文通过构建结构化超级乘数模型,并基于矩阵谱分解方法分析内需能否替代外需成为新的增长引擎,以及增长引擎转换带来的经济波动问题。理论研究表明:内需能否替代外需对经济增长的拉动效应取决于生产技术、分配关系、消费行为等;增长引擎转换产生的需求结构与增长率变化会通过生产体系导致净产出结构出现波动。经验研究显示:2020年消费对经济增长的拉动效应大于出口的拉动效应,内需能够替代外需成为新的增长引擎;增长引擎转换导致整体经济产生的波动程度在上升,但一旦增长引擎转换完成后,内需增长率的变化不会导致我国经济出现较大波动。 Building a new developmental paradigm requires a firm grasp of the strategic move of ex-panding domestic demand.By constructing a structural supermultiplier model and using the method of matrix spectral decomposition,this article analyzes whether domestic demand can replace exter-nal demand as a new engine for growth as well as the fluctuations in the economic system caused by the transformation of the growth engine.It shows that theoretically whether domestic demand can replace the external demand's driving effect on economic growth depends on production technology,income distribution,consumption behavior,and so on.It also shows that changes in the structure and growth rate of demand caused by the transformation of the growth engine will generate fluctua-tions in the net output structure through the production system.Empirical research shows that the driving effect of consumption on economic growth is greater than that of export in 2020,and that domestic demand can completely replace external demand as the engine for economic growth.This article also finds that the fluctuations in the economy caused by the transformation are increasing,but once the transformation of growth engine is completed,the change of growth rate of domestic demand will not cause big fluctuations in the economy.

作者黄彪赵晓楷 HUANG Biao;ZHAO Xiaokai(School of Economics,Renmin University of China;National Research Center for Socialist Political Economy with Chinese Characteristics,Renmin University of China;School of Marxism,Beijing Forestry University)

机构地区中国人民大学经济学院中国人民大学全国中国特色社会主义政治经济学研究中心北京林业大学马克思主义学院

出处《中国人民大学学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2023年第6期102-116,共15页 Journal of Renmin University of China

基金中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“马克思-斯拉法框架下经济增长、动态与不稳定问题研究”(20XNF013) 中国人民大学经济学院政治经济学数据库建设经费支持。

关键词增长引擎转换经济波动结构化超级乘数投入产出 Transformation of growth engine Economic fluctuations Structural supermultiplier Input-output analysis

分类号 F124 [经济管理—世界经济]

作者简介黄彪,中国人民大学经济学院讲师,中国人民大学全国中国特色社会主义政治经济学研究中心研究员,huangbiao@ruc.edu.cn;通讯作者:赵晓楷,北京林业大学马克思主义学院讲师,zhaoxiaokai3@163.com。