摘要
美日同盟何以长期维系是联盟理论研究的重要问题之一,也是亚太地区秩序面临的重大现实问题。主流联盟理论尚未深入探讨的“复合同盟”概念是基于正式条约合作的政治经济同盟,主要特征体现为安全合作具有最高决定性,经济合作具有战略性,二者共同寻求绝对收益与相对收益,具有进攻性与排他性,且文化合作对同盟的维系具有放大效应。复合同盟的维系可以被划分为同盟解体、同盟弱化、同盟维持与同盟强化四大形态。基于联盟政治经济学的视角,以过程追踪的研究方法探究美日同盟长达70余年的演化发现,促成美日复合同盟长期维系的是经济—安全“代偿机制”,其完整的驱动逻辑是体系压力(前置变量)、代偿机制(核心变量)、国内政治(中介变量)、复合同盟的维系(因变量)。近年来美日复合同盟趋向失衡的双向代偿在美日两国国内、区域乃至体系层面产生了愈发显著的负面效应。而在体系变迁、国内政治不稳定的前景下,若代偿机制持续严重失衡,美日同盟可能出现不可逆的同盟弱化。
One of the critical topics in alliance theory research is how the Japan-US alliance has been maintained for a long time,which is also a major practical issue for the regional order in the Asia-Pacific.The concept of"composite alliance",which has not been explored in depth by mainstream alliance theory,is a political and economic alliance based on formal treaty cooperation,characterized by the decisive role of security cooperation,the strategic nature of economic cooperation,the pursuit of absolute and relative gains by both parties,the aggressiveness and exclusiveness of the alliance,and the amplifying effect of cultural cooperation on the maintenance of the alliance.The maintenance of a composite alliance can be divided into four types:alliance dissolution,alliance weakening,alliance maintenance,and alliance strengthening.Based on the perspective of alliance political economy and using the research method of process tracing,this paper examines the evolution of the Japan-US alliance for more than 70 years and finds that the economic-security"compensation mechanism"is the key factor for maintaining the Japan-US composite alliance.The complete driving logic is system pressure(preliminary variable),compensation mechanism(core variable),domestic politics(intermediate variable),and maintenance of composite alliance(dependent variable).In recent years,the two-way compensation of the unbalanced Japan-US composite alliance has produced increasingly significant negative effects at the domestic,regional,and system levels of both countries.
出处
《日本学刊》
CSSCI
2023年第4期72-100,154,共30页
Japanese Studies
作者简介
周超,中国人民大学国际关系学院博士研究生。
